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Watchlist

Week 5 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

Week01234567891011121315

The five

  1. 1
    MichiganatMinnesotaLittle Brown Jug
    Time TBDHuntington Bank Stadiummodel Michigan by 0.3
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 8/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    67
    score
  2. 2
    Auburnat#18Tennessee
    Time TBDNeyland Stadiummodel Tennessee by 3.8
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    63
    score
  3. 3
    PittsburghatVirginia Tech
    Fri, Oct 2 · 7:00 PM ETLane Stadiummodel Virginia Tech by 0.1
    • Projected closeness 35/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    60
    score
  4. 4
    #24LouisvilleatNC State
    Time TBDCarter-Finley Stadiummodel Louisville by 1.9
    • Projected closeness 29/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    59
    score
  5. 5
    #12AlabamaatMississippi State
    Time TBDDavis Wade Stadiummodel Alabama by 5.6
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    57
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    MarshallatJames Madison
    Time TBDBridgeforth Stadiummodel Marshall by 0.5
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    55
    score
  2. 7
    #1Ohio Stateat#21Iowa
    Time TBDKinnick Stadiummodel Ohio State by 17.7
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 28/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    54
    score
  3. 8
    #19Washingtonat#14USC
    Time TBDLos Angeles Memorial Coliseummodel USC by 15.2
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • History 4/10
    53
    score
  4. 9
    Floridaat#23Missouri
    Time TBDMemorial Stadiummodel Missouri by 9.0
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    51
    score
  5. 10
    #16Penn StateatNorthwestern
    Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ETRyan Fieldmodel Northwestern by 7.7
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    51
    score
  6. 11
    CaliforniaatUNLV
    Sat, Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ETAllegiant Stadiummodel California by 0.3
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Points on the board 5/10
    51
    score
  7. 12
    BayloratArizona State
    Time TBDMountain America Stadiummodel Arizona State by 2.7
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score
  8. 13
    PurdueatIllinoisPurdue Cannon
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)model Illinois by 4.9
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  9. 14
    Vanderbiltat#2Georgia
    Time TBDSanford Stadiummodel Georgia by 14.3
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    49
    score
  10. 15
    SyracuseatUConn
    Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ETPratt & Whitney Stadiummodel UConn by 0.2
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  11. 16
    Fresno StateatWashington State
    Sat, Oct 3 · 9:30 PM ETGesa Fieldmodel Washington State by 3.2
    • Projected closeness 25/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    48
    score
  12. 17
    #7MiamiatClemson
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)model Miami by 10.4market +7
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    48
    score
  13. 18
    North TexasatTulsa
    Thu, Oct 1 · 9:00 PM ETChapman Stadiummodel North Texas by 2.3
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  14. 19
    Utah StateatBoise State
    Sat, Oct 3 · 7:30 PM ETAlbertsons Stadiummodel Boise State by 3.8
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    45
    score
  15. 20
    #15BYUatTCU
    Time TBDAmon G. Carter Stadiummodel BYU by 14.7
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    43
    score
  16. 21
    West VirginiaatIowa State
    Time TBDJack Trice Stadiummodel Iowa State by 5.4
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    42
    score
  17. 22
    MarylandatNebraska
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)model Nebraska by 5.4
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    42
    score
  18. 23
    NavyatAir ForceCommander-in-Chief's Trophy
    Sat, Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ETFalcon Stadiummodel Air Force by 9.6
    • Projected closeness 14/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • History 9/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    41
    score
  19. 24
    Arkansasat#10Texas A&M
    Time TBDKyle Fieldmodel Texas A&M by 22.8
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    40
    score
  20. 25
    #25VirginiaatFlorida State
    Time TBDDoak Campbell Stadiummodel Virginia by 13.3
    • Projected closeness 9/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    40
    score
  21. 26
    Georgia SouthernatCoastal Carolina
    Time TBDBrooks Stadium (SC)model Georgia Southern by 2.4
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 6/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    40
    score
  22. 27
    AkronatCentral Michigan
    Time TBDKelly/Shorts Stadiummodel Akron by 1.5
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 1/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    39
    score
  23. 28
    LibertyatDelaware
    Fri, Oct 2 · 7:00 PM ETDelaware Stadiummodel Delaware by 7.1
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  24. 29
    Michigan StateatWisconsin
    Time TBDCamp Randall Stadiummodel Wisconsin by 10.5
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  25. 30
    KentuckyatSouth Carolina
    Time TBDWilliams-Brice Stadiummodel South Carolina by 14.3
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    36
    score
  26. 31
    Texas StateatSan Diego State
    Sat, Oct 3 · 10:30 PM ETSnapdragon Stadiummodel San Diego State by 8.6
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    35
    score
  27. 32
    ArmyatLouisiana Tech
    Time TBDJoe Aillet Stadiummodel Army by 8.0
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  28. 33
    CincinnatiatArizona
    Time TBDArizona Stadiummodel Arizona by 13.6
    • Projected closeness 9/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  29. 34
    UCFat#22Houston
    Time TBDTDECU Stadiummodel Houston by 16.7
    • Projected closeness 7/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    33
    score
  30. 35
    Oregon StateatColorado State
    Sat, Oct 3 · 6:00 PM ETCanvas Stadiummodel Colorado State by 4.3
    • Projected closeness 23/35
    • Team quality 4/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    33
    score
  31. 36
    TempleatSouth Florida
    Time TBDRaymond James Stadiummodel South Florida by 10.9
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    32
    score
  32. 37
    #5IndianaatRutgers
    Sat, Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ETSHI Stadiummodel Indiana by 26.3
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    32
    score
  33. 38
    Arkansas StateatLouisiana
    Time TBDCajun Fieldmodel Louisiana by 9.7
    • Projected closeness 13/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    31
    score
  34. 39
    StanfordatWake Forest
    Time TBDAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel Wake Forest by 10.2
    • Projected closeness 13/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 5/10
    31
    score
  35. 40
    #13Texas TechatColorado
    Time TBDFolsom Fieldmodel Texas Tech by 28.3
    • Projected closeness 2/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    31
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.