@ Iowa State · Wk 3Win prob 8%Model +21.1Schedule & Results
NEBNebraskaL7-56✓Wk 3@ISUIowa State+21.18%Wk 4vs
USFSouth Florida+18.912%Wk 5@
M-OHMiami (OH)+18.012%Wk 6vs
SACSacramento State+15.516%Wk 7vs
BALLBall State-3.358%Wk 8@
BUFBuffalo+10.924%Wk 9@
WMUWestern Michigan+24.85%Wk 11vs
KENTKent State+1.346%Wk 12@
TOLToledo+20.39%Wk 13vs
MASSMassachusetts-17.991%Team Leaders
Jay KastantinPassing346 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
Austyn DendyRushing89 yds · 1 TD · 3.4 avg
Jeremiah ScobyReceiving12 rec · 121 yds · 0 TD
Dorian PringleTackles23 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Bowling Green
All news →Bowling Green can't throw on this Nebraska secondary
Kaden Anderson produced five of Tarleton State's seven explosive plays
Roster · 106 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hunter Najm | QB | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Aliso Viejo, CA |
| 12 | Jarin Mock | QB | FR | 6'3" | 212 | Pickerington, OH |
| 13 | Caleb Moyer | QB | FR | 6'2" | 193 | Wapakoneta, OH |
| 15 | Dylan Dreasky | QB | FR | 6'2" | 197 | Linden, MI |
| 16 | Austin Novosad | QB | JR | 6'3" | 203 | Dripping Springs, TX |
| 17 | Jay Kastantin | QB | JR | 6'4" | 235 | Needham, MA |
| 1 | Austyn Dendy | RB | SO | 6'1" | 230 | Pine Bluff, AR |
| 2 | Nakai Amachree | RB | SO | 5'10" | 195 | Haslett, MI |
| 4 | Ke'Marion Baldwin | RB | JR | 5'9" | 205 | St. Pauls, NC |
| 20 | Marceles Carey | RB | FR | 5'11" | 165 | DeLand, FL |
| 21 | Carson Lovett | RB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Detroit, MI |
| 33 | Tristin Blackmon | RB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Prattville, AL |
| 44 | Leo Kemp | FB | SR | 5'11" | 239 | Paso Robles, CA |
| 3 | Trey Johnson | WR | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Frankfort, IL |
| 5 | Brennan Ridley | WR | JR | 5'11" | 177 | Richmond, VA |
| 6 | Isaiah Dawson | WR | SO | 5'8" | 192 | Garner, NC |
| 9 | Nick Sowell | WR | JR | 6'5" | 205 | Irmo, SC |
| 11 | Austin Clay | WR | SO | 6'0" | 175 | Cleveland, OH |
| 14 | Pauly Sadler | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Cleveland, OH |
| 18 | Winn Sharp | WR | SO | 6'5" | 200 | Whitehouse, OH |
| 19 | Joseph Saffold | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | Cleveland, OH |
| 23 | Dom Woods | WR | FR | 6'0" | 172 | Perrysburg, OH |
| 25 | Cade Brooks | WR | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Portland, TN |
| 83 | Pierce St Geme | WR | SO | 5'11" | 186 | San Francisco, CA |
| 87 | Reddik Pillarelli | WR | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Holland, OH |
| 0 | Jeremiah Scoby | TE | SO | 6'3" | 218 | Dickinson, TX |
| 8 | Eli Jacon-Duffy | TE | SO | 6'4" | 245 | Pleasant Plain, OH |
| 47 | Kentrell White | TE | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Atlanta, GA |
| 80 | Ocean Brabbs | TE | SO | 6'3" | 213 | Ann Arbor, MI |
| 82 | Maddox Hunstad | TE | FR | 6'5" | 197 | Saint Augustine, FL |
| 84 | Trent Taylor | TE | FR | 6'5" | 260 | Perry, OH |
| 85 | Reece Little | TE | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Findlay, OH |
| 86 | Derron Gray Jr. | TE | FR | 6'4" | 230 | Columbus, OH |
| 88 | Carsen Melvin | TE | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Westfield, IN |
| 89 | Blane Cleaver | TE | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Berwick, PA |
| 59 | John Kolarchick | OL | FR | 6'6" | 320 | Troy, MI |
| 61 | Pete Pendergest | OL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Hamilton, OH |
| 64 | MJ Dillard | OL | SO | 6'5" | 280 | Buford, GA |
| 65 | Gabe Funk | OL | SO | 6'6" | 320 | Xenia, OH |
| 71 | Travis Robertson | OL | FR | 6'7" | 310 | Farmington Hills, MI |
| 75 | Maddux Murphy | OL | FR | 6'6" | 310 | Saint Joseph, MI |
| 76 | Theo Andall | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | London |
| 50 | Vincent Giordano | OT | FR | 6'5" | 310 | West Chester, OH |
| 58 | Ethan Kraatz | OT | FR | 6'4" | 310 | Saginaw, MI |
| 66 | Zane Panchula | OT | FR | 6'5" | 305 | Rockford, MI |
| 70 | Alex Harris | OT | SO | 6'5" | 320 | Cleveland, OH |
| 53 | Masyn Zahursky | G | FR | 6'4" | 305 | Berea, OH |
| 73 | Caden Campbell | G | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Rochester, MI |
| 77 | James Thomas Jr. | G | JR | 6'5" | 295 | Fairfield, OH |
| 78 | Alexis Sanchez | G | SR | 6'3" | 335 | Glendale, AZ |
| 54 | Brody Bolyn | C | JR | 6'3" | 310 | Uniondale, IN |
| 5 | Eriq George | DE | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Nashville, TN |
| 17 | Jaimion Olverson | DE | FR | 6'3" | 280 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 23 | Myles Bradley | DE | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Mansfield, OH |
| 48 | Quentin Lewis | DE | FR | 6'2" | 240 | Snellville, GA |
| 4 | Kade Kostus | DL | SR | 6'2" | 265 | Rockford, MI |
| 28 | Samuel Dossous | DL | FR | 6'3" | 230 | Massillon, OH |
| 52 | Elijah Durham-Smith | DL | FR | 6'2" | 250 | Pickerington, OH |
| 55 | Timothy Taylor Jr. | DL | FR | 6'0" | 275 | Starke, FL |
| 56 | John Baker IV | DL | FR | 6'5" | 210 | Clinton Township, MI |
| 58 | Kore Thomas | DL | FR | 6'1" | 320 | Forney, TX |
| 88 | Selah Brown | DL | SR | 6'2" | 295 | Louisville, KY |
| 90 | Bryce Brewster | DL | FR | 6'3" | 245 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 93 | Trent Merrell | DL | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Elyria, OH |
| 96 | Cameron Simmons | DL | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Sugar Hill, GA |
| 54 | Dior Garner | DT | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Canton, OH |
| 57 | Dayln White | DT | JR | 6'4" | 295 | Lewisville, TX |
| 95 | Jonathan Hendrix | DT | FR | 6'2" | 285 | Mason, OH |
| 99 | Brendon Rice | DT | FR | 6'2" | 315 | Farmington Hills, MI |
| 3 | Dorian Pringle | LB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Massillon, OH |
| 6 | Sanders Ellis | LB | JR | 6'2" | 250 | Nashville, TN |
| 10 | Andrew Hines III | LB | SO | 6'1" | 230 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 20 | Darian Hawkins | LB | FR | 6'4" | 217 | Culver City, CA |
| 30 | Caden Carter | LB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Norton, OH |
| 35 | Cashmire Lewis | LB | FR | 6'4" | 215 | Hartford, CT |
| 36 | Jabari Mitchell | LB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Reynoldsburg, OH |
| 39 | Henry Reifschneider | LB | SO | 6'0" | 212 | Waynesville, OH |
| 44 | AJ Odom | LB | SR | 6'3" | 235 | Oakman, AL |
| 45 | Kingston Seals | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Maple Heights, OH |
| 50 | Jonathan Goins | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Pine Bluff, AR |
| 2 | JoJo Johnson | CB | SR | 6'0" | 188 | Merrillville, IN |
| 18 | Nick Sawyer | CB | SR | 5'11" | 178 | Harvest, AL |
| 26 | Josira Andrews | CB | SO | 5'10" | 180 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 32 | Rico Garcia | CB | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Tampa, FL |
| 37 | Garrison Blair | CB | SO | 5'10" | 185 | Carrollton, TX |
| 7 | Mike Wright III | DB | JR | 5'10" | 188 | Palm Beach Gardens, FL |
| 11 | Armhan Hale | DB | SR | 5'11" | 213 | Akron, OH |
| 13 | Chris Newell Jr. | DB | FR | 5'10" | 182 | Cleveland, OH |
| 14 | JayT Jackson | DB | SR | 6'1" | 179 | Columbus, GA |
| 21 | Cedarius Christian | DB | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Dundee, FL |
| 22 | Julian Holt | DB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 41 | Drey Braxton | DB | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Highland Springs, VA |
| 0 | Kal-El Pascal | S | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Miami, FL |
| 9 | Preston EstoEsta | S | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Mason, OH |
| 15 | D'kyah Banks | S | SO | 6'5" | 185 | Atlanta, GA |
| 19 | Jahai Johnson | S | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Piscataway, NJ |
| 40 | DeVenchi Arnold II | S | FR | 6'1" | 190 | District Heights, MD |
| 12 | Travis Kenner | PK | JR | 5'10" | 178 | Temperance, MI |
| 27 | Treyton McKee | PK | FR | 5'11" | 192 | Lancaster, OH |
| 40 | Ethan Warner | PK | SR | 5'9" | 192 | Bowling Green, OH |
| 95 | Carlos Guerra | PK | FR | 5'8" | 175 | Brentwood, TN |
| 97 | Drew Rosick | PK | FR | 6'1" | 180 | Armada, MI |
| 30 | Ryan Kingston | P | SR | 6'6" | 220 | South Bend, IN |
| 91 | Alex Jenkins | P | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Fishers, IN |
| 52 | Quinn Forsythe | LS | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Manhattan, IL |
| 56 | Quillan Jimenez | LS | JR | 6'2" | 220 | Sickles, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Bowling Green is in year 2 under Eddie George. The strengths are defensive, led by 13th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 134th at throwing it, and they are 132nd at moving the ball on the ground.
Bowling Green has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#134projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#132projected
- Offensefirst and second down#132projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.31#120
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.42 / 0.22
- Power / stuff (off)
- 50.0% / 25.0%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 8.5%#137
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 5.1% / 3.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.23#128 | 0.09#90 | 0.63#63 |
| Defense | 0.57#137 | 0.09#68 | -0.46#4 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0318th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1533rd
- Offense success rate39%30th
- Defense success rate allowed39%45th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs47%39th
- Offense success — passing downs21%18th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs49%29th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs17%85th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness0.9812th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.422nd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.7913th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.058th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.312th
- Defense line yards allowed2.939th
- Offense highlight yards0.2215th
- Defense highlight yards allowed4.31st
- Offense power success0.5022nd
- Defense power success allowed0.5079th
- Offense stuff rate0.2516th
- Defense stuff rate0.2574th
Third down
- Third down conversion46%53rd
- Third down distance faced7.138th
- Third down conversion allowed11%93rd
- Third down distance forced6.120th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1220th
- Net success rate — second half0.1055th
Roster
- Returning usage23%24th
- Returning EPA-7.11st
- Team talent composite56820th
- Recruiting class rank75.046th
- Recruiting class points18846th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.975 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Bowling Green is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Bowling Green in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 7-6 | 6-2 | 54% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 5-3 | 46% | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 2017 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 17% | 2.5 | -0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 4.9-7.2. Wins the Mid-American in 4.8%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.1 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 3.3% where the average Mid-American team is 1.1%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.05 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Bowling Green’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk2at Nebraska0.7
- wk3at Iowa State0.2
- wk9at Western Michigan0.2
- wk12at Toledo0.2
- wk4vs South Florida0.2
- wk5at Miami (OH)0.1
Who to root for
Games Bowling Green is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State0.1
- wk3Eastern Michigan over Wisconsin0.1
- wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.1
- wk3Kentucky over Texas A&M0.1
- wk13Charlotte over Navy0.1
- wk3Arkansas State over TCU0.1
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 4.4-3.66 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Bowling Green at Western Michigan16.2
- wk12Bowling Green at Toledo11.1
- wk2Bowling Green at Nebraska10.3
- wk5Bowling Green at Miami (OH)10.0
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Bowling Green is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Arizona Bowl7.9%
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl6.6%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl5.0%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl3.9%
- Boca Raton Bowl3.6%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl3.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent Bowling Green a player since 2010 — 21 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Bowling Green's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.