Skip to content
Warren Thompson
Warren Thompson

#84Warren Thompson

WR·TCU·2023

Warren Thompson is a Versatile WR for TCU.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Warren Thompson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
19 Receptions246 Rec yards2 Rec TD12.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume9
  • Explosiveness40
  • Consistency71
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.90 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Houston (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.900−2.90Wk 1 vs Colorado: -0.09 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Nicholls: +0.77 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Houston: +2.90 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs SMU: +1.16 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Iowa State: +2.75 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs BYU: +0.44 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Kansas State: +0.16 EPA/play8
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsColoradoL42-45-4.911818.0018-0.09
2vsNichollsW41-6—89211.50280.77
3@HoustonW36-13-7.813333.01332.90
4vsSMUW34-1710.12168.00121.16
6@Iowa StateL14-277.523517.50212.75
7vsBYUW44-11-3.333812.71150.44
8@Kansas StateL3-4116.22147.0070.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
3.3%
Passing plays
6.1%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
3.2%
Passing downs
3.4%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.07
Passing downs
1.40
Pass / Rush EPA
1.17 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.