#17Tommy Ulatowski

QB·Kent State·2024

Tommy Ulatowski is a Clutch Passer for Kent State. Tommy's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 158 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tommy Ulatowski's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

81/175 Comp/Att1342 Pass yards15 Pass TD8 INT46.3% Comp %

Rushing

-22 Rush yards1 Rush TD62 Carries-0.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat17
Consistency45
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency45th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.57 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.65 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Pittsburgh (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Pittsburgh	L24-55	4.9	—	—	—	—	—	2	0	1.65
2	vsSt. Francis (PA)	L17-23	—	1/1	9	1	0	17.3	5	0	0.70
4	@Penn State	L0-56	24.6	0/6	0	0	0	11.8	—	—	-0.67
5	vsEastern Michigan	L33-52	-13.3	15/28	345	3	1	24.0	-8	1	0.94
7	vsBall State	L35-37	-19.8	17/36	394	4	1	20.5	-10	0	0.46
8	@Bowling Green	L6-27	-1.8	7/27	78	0	2	2.3	-20	0	-0.43
9	@Western Michigan	L21-52	-10.2	12/24	114	3	2	2.3	29	0	0.43
12	@Miami (OH)	L7-34	1.3	10/21	82	1	1	16.2	6	0	—
13	vsAkron	L17-38	-17.9	12/20	229	2	1	4.3	-33	0	0.11
14	@Buffalo	L7-43	-4.0	7/12	91	1	0	9.9	7	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

36.7%

Passing plays

61.0%

Rushing plays

12.4%

Standard downs

30.1%

Passing downs

46.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / -0.02

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).