#10Samajie Grant

WR·Arizona·20160.3 pts line value1st Round

Samajie Grant is a Versatile WR for Arizona. Samajie's 2016 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 80 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Samajie Grant's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

461 Rush yards6 Rush TD74 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

22 Receptions247 Rec yards3 Rec TD11.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs WR peers

Efficiency40
Volume35
Explosiveness28
Consistency54
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency54th %ile · average

Key findings

▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.44 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Utah (SP+ 11).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Justin Lynch	Northern Illinois	2022	66	0.230	0.7	15.2
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2025	70	0.220	0.8	15.4
Dawan Scott	Miami (OH)	2014	66	0.280	0.8	18.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsBYU	L16-18	8.0	3	14	4.7	0	6	—
2	vsGrambling	W31-21	—	5	95	19.0	0	70	0.79
3	vsHawai'i	W47-28	-10.1	2	17	8.5	0	11	-0.15
4	vsWashington	L28-35	26.7	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.12
5	@UCLA	L24-45	9.1	1	12	12.0	1	12	0.22
6	@Utah	L23-36	10.9	4	86	21.5	1	63	1.44
7	vsUSC	L14-48	23.6	3	23	7.7	1	12	1.23
9	vsStanford	L10-34	16.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.09
10	@Washington State	L7-69	6.2	1	-2	-2.0	0	0	0.09
11	vsColorado	L24-49	6.3	1	3	3.0	0	3	—
12	@Oregon State	L17-42	-4.6	1	-5	-5.0	0	0	-0.30
13	vsArizona State	W56-35	-3.0	—	—	—	—	—	0.43

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.2%

Passing plays

9.6%

Rushing plays

14.1%

Standard downs

13.2%

Passing downs

9.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: -0.08
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.67 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.