#5Noah Rogers

WR·NC State·2025

Noah Rogers is a Slot Specialist WR for NC State. Noah's 2025 season produced 28.5 total EPA across 45 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Noah Rogers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

31 Receptions413 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume18
Explosiveness42
Consistency78
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.65 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.48 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Wake Forest (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsEast Carolina	W24-17	8.0	2	19	9.5	0	10	0.54
2	vsVirginia	W35-31	11.1	2	38	19.0	1	27	0.56
3	@Wake Forest	W34-24	5.7	4	52	13.0	0	20	1.48
4	@Duke	L33-45	6.6	3	48	16.0	0	25	1.46
5	vsVirginia Tech	L21-23	-10.1	1	16	16.0	0	16	0.70
6	vsCampbell	W56-10	—	3	62	20.7	0	48	0.95
9	@Pittsburgh	L34-53	8.4	3	26	8.7	1	15	0.69
10	vsGeorgia Tech	W48-36	9.3	7	72	10.3	0	17	0.71
12	@Miami	L7-41	20.7	2	13	6.5	0	7	0.03
14	vsNorth Carolina	W42-19	-6.6	2	30	15.0	0	24	-0.23
20	vsMemphis	W31-7	7.6	2	37	18.5	0	21	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.2%

Passing plays

12.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

4.6%

Passing downs

9.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 1.10
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.63 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).