#24John Lee Eldridge III

RB·Air Force·2023

John Lee Eldridge III is a Pass-Catching Back for Air Force. John's 2023 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 83 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So John Lee Eldridge III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

599 Rush yards6 Rush TD84 Carries7.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions39 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.6 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns39 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency98
Volume32
Explosiveness82
Consistency64
Receiving96

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.62 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.13 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Utah State (SP+ -11).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsRobert Morris	W42-7	—	4	72	18.0	0	—	—	—	0.97
2	vsSam Houston	W13-3	-13.8	6	22	3.7	0	1	14	0	0.35
3	vsUtah State	W39-21	-10.9	7	58	8.3	1	—	—	—	1.13
4	@San José State	W45-20	-3.4	10	102	10.2	2	—	—	—	1.03
5	vsSan Diego State	W49-10	-10.3	4	24	6.0	0	—	—	—	0.60
7	vsWyoming	W34-27	-3.6	3	65	21.7	1	1	17	1	—
8	@Navy	W17-6	-13.7	4	8	2.0	0	1	1	0	-0.45
9	@Colorado State	W30-13	-8.9	11	57	5.2	1	1	3	0	0.57
10	vsArmy	L3-23	-4.0	6	40	6.7	0	1	3	0	0.41
11	@Hawai'i	L13-27	-16.4	6	19	3.2	0	—	—	—	0.01
12	vsUNLV	L27-31	1.4	10	48	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.39
13	@Boise State	L19-27	5.9	5	6	1.2	0	1	4	0	-0.39
20	vsJames Madison	W31-21	11.8	8	78	9.8	0	1	-3	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.2%

Passing plays

5.9%

Rushing plays

12.1%

Standard downs

10.0%

Passing downs

15.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.01 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).