#13Cole McDonald

QB·Hawai'i·2019 20186.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Cole McDonald is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Hawai'i. Cole's 2019 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 550 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cole McDonald's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

326/511 Comp/Att4138 Pass yards33 Pass TD14 INT63.8% Comp %

Rushing

377 Rush yards7 Rush TD103 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat77
Consistency83
Clutch66

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Central Arkansas.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsArizona	W45-38	-8.0	29/41	378	4	4	82.6	21	0	0.48
2	vsOregon State	W31-28	-0.7	30/52	421	4	1	68.7	19	0	0.27
3	@Washington	L20-52	18.3	22/35	218	1	3	34.6	29	0	0.30
4	vsCentral Arkansas	W35-16	—	25/32	300	4	1	94.7	31	0	0.63
5	@Nevada	W54-3	-12.3	25/30	312	4	0	87.0	1	0	0.58
7	@Boise State	L37-59	8.1	23/41	251	3	0	58.0	54	1	0.29
8	vsAir Force	L26-56	12.1	34/52	404	3	1	73.2	41	0	0.13
9	@New Mexico	W45-31	-17.0	17/30	237	1	1	96.2	140	2	0.51
10	vsFresno State	L38-41	-4.0	21/42	275	1	1	—	17	1	0.02
12	@UNLV	W21-7	-17.4	20/26	211	0	0	—	43	2	0.47
13	vsSan Diego State	W14-11	2.0	13/19	144	1	1	—	-5	0	0.35
14	vsArmy	W52-31	-2.1	19/29	250	3	0	—	7	0	0.55
15	@Boise State	L10-31	8.1	20/36	244	0	1	—	-11	0	-0.06
1	vsBYU	W38-34	1.3	28/46	493	4	0	—	-10	1	0.54

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.6%

Passing plays

84.2%

Rushing plays

24.0%

Standard downs

60.7%

Passing downs

63.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Hawai'i	7.3	0.436	—	263.8
2019	Hawai'i	6.1	0.420	-0.02	258.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.