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Cam Johnson
Cam Johnson

#14Cam Johnson

WR·Northwestern·2023

Cam Johnson is a Slot Specialist WR for Northwestern. Cam's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 56 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cam Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
54 Receptions715 Rec yards6 Rec TD13.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume21
  • Explosiveness42
  • Consistency86
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.41 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.77 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Purdue (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.770−2.77Wk 1 vs Rutgers: +1.04 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs UTEP: +1.04 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Duke: +1.48 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Minnesota: +0.65 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Penn State: +1.39 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Howard: +1.85 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Nebraska: +0.28 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Maryland: +1.09 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Iowa: +1.89 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Wisconsin: +1.20 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Purdue: +2.77 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Illinois: +1.30 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1@RutgersL7-243.544511.30171.04
2vsUTEPW38-7-16.235117.00431.04
3@DukeL14-389.45459.00131.48
4vsMinnesotaW37-340.44358.80130.65
5vsPenn StateL13-4123.568113.50221.39
6vsHowardW23-20—45513.81351.85
8@NebraskaL9-170.33279.00140.28
9vsMarylandW33-2711.024623.00341.09
10vsIowaL7-105.833010.01141.89
11@WisconsinW24-109.46579.51241.20
12vsPurdueW23-15-7.338829.31522.77
13@IllinoisW45-43-2.5712417.71421.30
20vsUtahW14-78.54317.8112—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
7.2%
Passing plays
13.8%
Rushing plays
0.2%
Standard downs
5.3%
Passing downs
10.8%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.82
Passing downs
1.70
Pass / Rush EPA
1.30 / 0.87

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.