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Andrew Armstrong
Andrew Armstrong

#2Andrew Armstrong

WR·Arkansas·2024

Andrew Armstrong is a Slot Specialist WR for Arkansas. Andrew's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 89 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Andrew Armstrong's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
78 Receptions1140 Rec yards1 Rec TD14.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume35
  • Explosiveness51
  • Consistency86
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.23 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.08 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 28).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.080−2.08Wk 2 vs Oklahoma State: +1.50 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs UAB: +1.56 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Auburn: +0.80 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Texas A&M: +0.44 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Tennessee: +0.88 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs LSU: +1.42 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Mississippi State: +1.57 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Ole Miss: +2.08 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Texas: +0.80 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Louisiana Tech: +0.31 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Missouri: +1.56 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
2@Oklahoma StateL31-39-2.61016416.40351.50
3vsUABW37-27-11.3813717.10291.56
4@AuburnW24-149.55479.40180.80
5vsTexas A&ML17-2117.067212.00270.44
6vsTennesseeW19-1422.0913214.70300.88
8vsLSUL10-3415.979413.41251.42
9@Mississippi StateW58-25-4.147619.00361.57
10vsOle MissL31-6327.9613522.50432.08
12vsTexasL10-2024.167412.30250.80
13vsLouisiana TechW35-14-11.688110.10180.31
14@MissouriL21-2814.0912814.20251.56

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
12.2%
Passing plays
23.9%
Rushing plays
0.5%
Standard downs
10.1%
Passing downs
16.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.85
Passing downs
1.26
Pass / Rush EPA
1.04 / 0.54

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.