Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild
TV ESPN, SNE·Grand Casino Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
53%Capitals
to win
47%
Wild
- Expected goals
- 3.2–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MIN.013vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.169vs-.090GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupseven.355vs.3315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MINMIN at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHMIN played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6041% to start175 career GP
Wild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · MIN John Hynes
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.1815th
- Goals for / game
- 10th3.27
- 2.907th
- Goals against / game
- 4th2.87
- 17.8%25th
- Power play
- 3rd25.2%
- 80.1%14th
- Penalty kill
- 16th79.8%
- 49.3%20th
- Faceoffs
- 30th46.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).