Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks
TV The Spot, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
57%Lightning
to win
43%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.294vs.0775v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
- Back-to-backfavors TBLTBL and SJS played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 17th3.04
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 30th3.54
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 16th21.2%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 26th76.4%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 26th47.8%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).