Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars
TV ABC, SN1·AT&T Stadium
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Golden Knights
to win
50%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.514vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL-.050vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK1.03vs.5255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
M. Stone28 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).