Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres
TV MSG-B, ALT2·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Avalanche
to win
50%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.337vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 5th3.45
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 10th2.93
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 21st19.5%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 4th81.9%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 32nd45.9%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).