Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins
TV Prime Video, NESN·TD Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Stars
to win
51%
Bruins
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs-.0585v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS.109vs.201GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BOS.390vs.6625v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BOSBOS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Bruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · BOS Marco Sturm
Leaders
vs- Points
D. Pastrnak100 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 10th3.27
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 14th3.01
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 9th23.4%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 24th77.0%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 4th53.1%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).