Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames
TV The Spot, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome
Our win probability
and the three reasons
57%Lightning
to win
43%
Flames
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.016GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.294vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CGYCGY at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Flames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · CGY Ryan Huska
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 32nd2.54
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 31st16.2%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 12th80.4%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 21st49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).