Islanders at Kraken — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Kraken

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Seattle Kraken(34-37-11)

Sat, Jan 2, 10:00 PM ESTTV Prime Video, MSGSN·Climate Pledge Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

45%

Islanders

to win

55%

Kraken

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors NYI
.488vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signaleven
-.069vs-.0885v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.078vs-.072GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors SEA
-.034vs.7245v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors SEA
SEA at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Kraken

Philipp Grubauer-0.11 GSAx/60
54% to start449 career GP
Joey Daccord-0.03 GSAx/60
46% to start173 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · SEA Lane Lambert

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
J. Eberle
55
B. Horvat
31
Goals
B. McMann
29
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
V. Dunn
33

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 28th2.73; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 23rd3.13; 16.5%30th
Power play: 20th19.5%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 31st72.2%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 27th47.7%

Season series

first meeting

Jan 2@this game
Jan 23@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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