Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins
TV MNMT, NESN·TD Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Capitals
to win
53%
Bruins
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH.013vs-.0585v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS.169vs.201GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BOS.355vs.7275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BOSBOS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6041% to start175 career GP
Bruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · BOS Marco Sturm
Leaders
vs- Points
A. Tuch66
D. Pastrnak100 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).