New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild
TV MINNHL, Wild+·Grand Casino Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Islanders
to win
57%
Wild
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MIN.488vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MIN-.069vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.078vs-.090GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MIN-.034vs.3315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MINMIN at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Wild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · MIN John Hynes
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 10th3.27
- 2.885th
- Goals against / game
- 4th2.87
- 16.5%30th
- Power play
- 3rd25.2%
- 80.8%10th
- Penalty kill
- 16th79.8%
- 52.6%5th
- Faceoffs
- 30th46.6%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).