Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights
TV ESPN, SN+·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Lightning
to win
56%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.125vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.294vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · VGK Ryan Craig
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
M. Stone28 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 14th3.22
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 12th2.95
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 6th24.6%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 7th81.4%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 12th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).