Lightning at Islanders — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Lightning at Islanders

Tampa Bay Lightning(50-26-6)

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM EDTTV The Spot, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

55%

Lightning

to win

45%

Islanders

Expected goals: 3.1–2.8
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL
.523vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL
.125vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signaleven
.207vs.187GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors TBL
.569vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors NYI
NYI at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/60
90% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/60
10% to start26 career GP

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
63% to start322 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
37% to start635 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · NYI Peter DeBoer

Leaders

vs

N. Kucherov
130
Points
M. Schaefer
59
N. Kucherov
44
Goals
B. Horvat
31
N. Kucherov
86
Assists
M. Schaefer
36

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.494th
Goals for / game: 25th2.79; 2.793rd
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 20.7%17th
Power play: 30th16.5%; 82.6%3rd
Penalty kill: 10th80.8%; 47.4%28th
Faceoffs: 5th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 10@this game
Jan 30@
Mar 13@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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