Stars at Penguins — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Stars at Penguins

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Pittsburgh Penguins(41-25-16)

Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM EDTTV Prime Video, SN-PIT·PPG Paints Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

52%

Stars

to win

48%

Penguins

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.527vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL
.038vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL
.109vs-.237GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors PIT
.390vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors PIT
PIT at home
Back-to-backfavors DAL
PIT played yesterday

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

Penguins

Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/60
91% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/60
9% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · PIT Dan Muse

Leaders

vs

J. Robertson
96
Points
S. Crosby
74
J. Robertson
45
Goals
B. Rust
29
M. Rantanen
55
Assists
E. Karlsson
51

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.339th
Goals for / game: 3rd3.54; 2.712nd
Goals against / game: 24th3.15; 28.6%2nd
Power play: 7th24.1%; 80.3%13th
Penalty kill: 6th81.4%; 51.6%7th
Faceoffs: 24th48.2%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 10@this game
Nov 22@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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