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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸4
FinalTV SN-PIT+, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Avery Hayes's goal at 19:58 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.0 to 1.4; shots on goal were BUF 24, PIT 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.4 goals below expected; Sergei Murashov stopped 13 of 13 (1.000), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Bryan Rust (1 G, 2 A), 2. Avery Hayes (1 G), 3. Hendrix Lapierre (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    B. Rust1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    A. Hayes1 G
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    H. Lapierre1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0511306124
PITPIT1721219428

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    C. Dewar(1)
    B. Rust (1), A. Kuzmenko (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:27

2nd period

  1. PIT
    B. Rust(1)PPG
    H. Lapierre (1), K. Letang (1)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:16
  2. BUF
    J. Richard(1)PPG
    T. Bordeleau (1), Z. Metsa (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:32
  3. PIT
    A. Hayes(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:58

3rd period

  1. PIT
    E. Soderblom(1)EN
    B. Rust (2), C. Dewar (1)
    wristxG 0.28Video
    1-4
    18:13

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·PIT 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:39PITRyan Graves · Interferencedrawn by Justin Danforth2 min

2nd

  • 10:30BUFDennis Gilbert · Holdingdrawn by Elmer Soderblom2 min
  • 11:58BUFJack Rathbone · Trippingdrawn by Justin Brazeau2 min
  • 18:07PITTristan Broz · Holdingdrawn by Liam Valente2 min

3rd

  • 0:36PITJustin Brazeau · Trippingdrawn by Zach Metsa2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Avery Hayes, 2nd 19:58 — PIT 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Soderblom · Missed · xG 0.33E. Soderblom · Goal · xG 0.28H. Lapierre · Missed · xG 0.23J. Brazeau · On goal · xG 0.20B. Kindel · Missed · xG 0.17A. Kuzmenko · Missed · xG 0.13A. Kuzmenko · Missed · xG 0.12A. Kuzmenko · On goal · xG 0.11B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.11H. Lapierre · On goal · xG 0.11T. Broz · Missed · xG 0.10C. Dewar · Missed · xG 0.10B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kuzmenko · Missed · xG 0.08F. Hallander · On goal · xG 0.07D. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kuzmenko · Missed · xG 0.06A. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.05H. Lapierre · On goal · xG 0.05B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.05A. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05F. Hallander · On goal · xG 0.04A. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.04C. Pietila · On goal · xG 0.04D. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.03A. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.03T. Broz · Missed · xG 0.03O. Pickering · On goal · xG 0.03C. Dewar · Goal · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02O. Pickering · Missed · xG 0.02C. Pietila · On goal · xG 0.02A. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brazeau · On goal · xG 0.02B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hallander · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hallander · On goal · xG 0.01B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01H. Brunicke · Missed · xG 0.01O. Pickering · On goal · xG 0.00F. Hallander · On goal · xG 0.00B. Kindel · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT4 G · 3.0 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
1.41 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.00 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF30%70%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.35 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
24
Shots on goal
28
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
26
15
Blocked shots
14
17
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
73Z. MetsaD011-100.00020—21:55
57R. MrtkaD000-220.04010—20:28
44D. GilbertD000-100.00202—20:02
20J.KulichC000-130.171004219:39
33R. JohnsonD000-120.02010—18:42
13M. PecaC000-210.120004718:01
76V. KomarovD000010.02430—17:33
15J. DanforthR000020.212004017:32
48T. KozakC000-210.062203317:01
77T. BordeleauC011-120.15010—16:57
3J. RathboneD000010.02032—16:22
70J. RichardR101-120.14000—16:02
41J. PolinR000-100.0410010015:37
28L. ValenteC000-130.10000—14:54
52T. KuntarC000-130.12400—14:52
45R. Fiddler-SchultzC000-110.150206314:19
27A. McDonoughL000000.04000—11:51
43C. ShearyL000000.00000—05:35
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(L)19163.8421.55-1.4540:00
92C. Ellis8801.0000.81+0.8118:52

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).