Blue Jackets at Canadiens 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Columbus Blue Jackets

Montréal Canadiens

▸2

FinalTV FDSNOH, TSN2·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 2-1. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zachary Bolduc's goal at 4:36 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Blue Jackets, 3.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were CBJ 26, MTL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blue Jackets win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Jet Greaves stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Jakub Dobes stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Zachary Bolduc (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jakub Dobes (25 saves, .962), 3. Jayden Struble (1 G).

Three stars

★
Z. Bolduc1 G, 1 A
★★
J. Dobes25 saves, .962
★★★
J. Struble1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	113	06	07	126
MTL	16	08	16	220

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Struble(1)
Z. Bolduc (17), L. Hutson (59)
snapxG 0.06win prob +13 ptsVideo
0-1
9:54
D. Severson(8)
B. Jenner (23), I. Lundestrom (7)
slapxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-1
12:17

3rd period

Z. Bolduc(11)
J. Evans (11), M. Matheson (28)
snapxG 0.14win prob +26 ptsVideo
1-2
4:36

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

4:18Juraj Slafkovský · Holdingdrawn by Kirill Marchenko2 min

2nd

7:41Jake Evans · Roughingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
7:41Miles Wood · Roughingdrawn by Lane Hutson2 min
14:36Zach Werenski · Interferencedrawn by Josh Anderson2 min

3rd

14:44Boone Jenner · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jakub Dobes2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

100%

Biggest swing: Zachary Bolduc, 3rd 4:36 — MTL 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.2 xG · 31 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 3.2 xG · 44 att MTL

2 G · 2.2 xG · 31 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.21 G
All situations: 2 G2.2; 3.01 G
Even strength: 2 G1.1; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

69%31%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.14 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 20; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 27
Hits: 24; 8
Blocked shots: 17; 17
Giveaways: 8; 5
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8Z. WerenskiD	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	0	1	2	—	27:21
9I. ProvorovD	0	0	0	-2	2	0.05	0	3	0	—	21:34
78D. SeversonD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.39	0	0	0	—	21:23
44E. GudbransonD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.08	3	0	0	—	20:36
86K. MarchenkoR	0	0	0	0	2	0.66	0	1	0	—	18:47
23S. MonahanC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.18	0	0	0	43	18:45
17M. MarchmentL	0	0	0	0	3	0.47	2	0	0	—	18:36
19A. FantilliC	0	0	0	0	4	0.36	8	0	0	38	18:35
3C. CoyleC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.19	1	0	0	53	15:20
15D. FabbroD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	15:04
83C. GarlandR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	1	0	0	—	14:43
38B. JennerC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.17	3	0	2	67	13:53
24M. OlivierR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.17	2	0	0	—	12:47
5D. MateychukD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	12:37
43D. HeinenL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.05	1	0	0	—	12:33
21I. LundestromC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	12:12
4C. SillingerC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	0	0	0	11:49
11M. WoodL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.16	3	1	2	—	08:47

Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
73J. Greaves(L)	20	18	2	.900	2.16	+0.16	58:38

Season series

CBJ leads 2-1

Nov 173@4SOFinal
Mar 261@2this game
Apr 115@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Columbus Blue Jackets at Montréal Canadiens

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score