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Lightning at Oilers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Edmonton Oilers
2
FinalTV The Spot, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-2. The Oilers scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 16:58 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 65% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were TBL 28, EDM 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27 (.963); Connor Ingram stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 2 A), 2. Brandon Hagel (2 A), 3. Vasily Podkolzin.

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    V. Podkolzin

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0931326528
EDMEDM11101115227

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(38)
    E. Bouchard (60)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:37

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(18)
    N. Kucherov (77), B. Hagel (34)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:37
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(31)PPG
    N. Kucherov (78), B. Point (29)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:13
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(39)SHG
    J. Moser (19)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-1
    16:58

3rd period

  1. EDM
    J. Samanski(1)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    7:16
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(40)
    B. Hagel (35)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-2
    15:32
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(19)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.50Video
    5-2
    19:28

Penalties

TBL 18 PIM·EDM 18 PIM

2nd

  • 6:03TBLPontus Holmberg · Roughingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 6:03EDMConnor McDavid · Roughingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 10:29TBLPontus Holmberg · Fightingdrawn by Connor Murphy5 min
  • 10:29EDMConnor Murphy · Fightingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg5 min
  • 11:03EDMDarnell Nurse · Illegal check to headdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 11:03TBLAnthony Cirelli · Fightingdrawn by Vasily Podkolzin5 min
  • 11:03EDMVasily Podkolzin · Fightingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli5 min
  • 13:06EDMConnor McDavid · Holdingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 14:47TBLNikita Kucherov · Trippingdrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min
  • 15:34TBLYanni Gourde · Slashingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

3rd

  • 15:50EDMMax Jones · Hookingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 19:09TBLErik Cernak · Cross checkingdrawn by Vasily Podkolzin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTBL goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 2nd 16:58 — TBL 65% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.34E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.25C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.15E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.13J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.09J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.08C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.08D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.07J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.07E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.07C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.06A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.05M. Savoie · On goal · xG 0.05J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.05E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.04V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.04D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.03J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.03R. Jarventie · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Samanski · Goal · xG 0.01T. Emberson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.01V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM2 G · 2.4 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsEDM
3.44 G
All situations
2 G2.4
2.32 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL59%41%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.85 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsEDM
28
Shots on goal
27
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/3
Power play
0/3
18
Penalty minutes
18
11
Hits
28
13
Blocked shots
17
19
Giveaways
18
5
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD000+130.10010—26:00
90J. MoserD011+300.00000—22:42
27R. McDonaghD000+200.00020—22:01
38B. HagelL022+320.21010—20:47
81E. CernakD000+110.00302—20:14
86N. KucherovR224+370.75002—19:53
59J. GuentzelC101-120.330008019:22
21B. PointC011-110.040105017:54
37Y. GourdeC000000.040026415:16
93G. GoncalvesC000-110.00020014:13
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.032305014:09
20N. PaulL000000.042106314:01
78E. LillebergD000-100.01100—13:02
51C. D'AstousD000-200.04110—11:58
29P. HolmbergR000010.36107—11:00
71A. CirelliC202+251.170052010:28
22O. BjorkstrandR000-130.24110—10:10
10C. PerryR000010.07000—09:59
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)27262.9632.43+0.4360:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).