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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV SN, CBC·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Claude Giroux's goal at 9:09 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 71% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.8 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 14, OTT 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 39 of 44 (.886), 0.8 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 12 of 14 (.857). Three stars: 1. Claude Giroux (1 G), 2. Jordan Spence (2 A), 3. Tyler Kleven (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Spence2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Kleven2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR061513214
OTTOTT19220215544

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(32)PPG
    T. Chabot (24), D. Batherson (34)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:58

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. Giroux(12)
    T. Kleven (12), J. Spence (18)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    9:09
  2. OTT
    W. Foegele(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +7 ptsVideo
    0-3
    17:53
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(25)
    E. Cowan (13), B. Carlo (7)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:14

3rd period

  1. TOR
    E. Cowan(9)
    S. Benoit (5), W. Nylander (41)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:52
  2. OTT
    M. Amadio(12)
    J. Spence (19), S. Pinto (20)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-4
    9:41
  3. OTT
    R. Greig(11)
    D. Cozens (27), T. Kleven (13)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-5
    13:11

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:30OTTShane Pinto · Roughingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 1:30TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 8:27OTTDennis Gilbert · Delaying game smothering puck2 min
  • 9:00TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Boardingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 14:12TORMatias Maccelli · Trippingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min

2nd

  • 6:07OTTTim Stützle · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Joseph Woll2 min
  • 9:43TORJacob Quillan · Interferencedrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min
  • 19:37OTTMichael Amadio · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 16:07TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Michael Amadio2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Claude Giroux, 2nd 9:09 — OTT 71% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.59M. Amadio · Goal · xG 0.26W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.21M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.20D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.20D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.17R. Greig · Goal · xG 0.16F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.16B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.15C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.14B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.09R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.08L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.08C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.08T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.07W. Foegele · Goal · xG 0.07T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.07J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.07C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.06N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.06F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.05F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.05J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.05C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.04C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.04M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03T. Kleven · Missed · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.02C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.01F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.01S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 4.8 xG · 67 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.02 G
All situations
5 G4.8
1.42 G
Even strength
4 G3.1
0.60 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR17%83%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 4.17

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
14
Shots on goal
44
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
22
6
Blocked shots
13
17
Giveaways
14
2
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. KniesL000-200.16200—24:28
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000-110.08204—23:20
22J. McCabeD000-100.00130—22:36
88W. NylanderR011+210.28100—21:47
28T. StecherD000010.06000—21:19
91J. TavaresC101+230.350003918:55
25B. CarloD011000.00000—18:18
53E. CowanR112+130.36100—18:04
2S. BenoitD011-110.05110—17:12
11M. DomiC000-100.000026714:24
29B. GroulxC000-210.192002513:39
51P. MyersD000-100.00010—13:09
89N. RobertsonL000-110.09010—12:25
81D. JoshuaC000-200.06300010:47
63M. MaccelliL000-120.30002—10:37
18S. LorentzC000000.0030010010:30
26J. QuillanC000-100.001026010:16
19C. JarnkrokC000-100.000005009:54
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)44395.8864.19-0.8159:34

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).