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Hurricanes at Flames
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Calgary Flames
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, SN·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-4. The Hurricanes scored first; the Flames answered. The Flames led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joel Farabee's goal at 4:11 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals were close — CAR 2.6, CGY 2.6; shots on goal were CAR 29, CGY 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Brandon Bussi stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 2.4 goals below expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joel Farabee (2 G, 1 A), 2. Morgan Frost (1 G, 2 A), 3. Ryan Strome (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    J. Farabee2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Frost1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    R. Strome1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR1907313429
CGYCGY0631326525

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(27)
    A. Svechnikov (32), S. Aho (40)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:44

2nd period

  1. CGY
    R. Strome(4)
    O. Maatta (2), M. Pospisil (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    0:19
  2. CGY
    J. Farabee(14)
    M. Frost (17), B. Coleman (10)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:11
  3. CGY
    M. Frost(14)PPG
    Z. Parekh (2), R. Strome (7)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:06

3rd period

  1. CGY
    B. Coleman(14)
    J. Farabee (13)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-4
    2:24
  2. CAR
    S. Walker(6)
    T. Hall (21), S. Aho (41)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    4:41
  3. CAR
    A. Nikishin(8)PPG
    S. Aho (42), S. Jarvis (24)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    3-4
    5:43
  4. CGY
    J. Farabee(15)
    M. Frost (18)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    17:42
  5. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(23)
    K. Miller (25), S. Jarvis (25)
    wristxG 0.21
    4-5
    19:48

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·CGY 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:44CARK'Andre Miller · High stickingdrawn by Olli Maatta2 min
  • 17:06CGYAdam Klapka · Roughingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

2nd

  • 4:30CARK'Andre Miller · Hookingdrawn by Matt Coronato2 min
  • 7:00CARMike Reilly · Trippingdrawn by John Beecher2 min
  • 19:01CGYBrayden Pachal · Roughingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 19:01CARSebastian Aho · Roughingdrawn by Brayden Pachal2 min

3rd

  • 5:15CGYBrayden Pachal · Interferencedrawn by William Carrier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalCAR goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Joel Farabee, 2nd 4:11 — CGY 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Pospisil · On goal · xG 0.36J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.28J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.18M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.16J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.15K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.13B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.13C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.13J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.12M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.11R. Strome · Goal · xG 0.10B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.09R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.09M. Pospisil · On goal · xG 0.08R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.07M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.04M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.03R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.03R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.03M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.03J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.02M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.02O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.00B. Pachal · On goal · xG 0.00M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.00M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY5 G · 2.6 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsCGY
2.64 G
All situations
5 G2.6
2.13 G
Even strength
4 G2.3
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR52%48%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 2.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsCGY
29
Shots on goal
25
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
26
12
Blocked shots
10
22
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19K. MillerD011-150.15104—23:51
26S. WalkerD101-110.10110—23:22
74J. SlavinD000010.02000—22:24
5J. ChatfieldD000010.04030—21:53
24S. JarvisR123+220.36110—19:29
20S. AhoC033+110.051025818:20
22L. StankovenC000000.133004618:17
53J. BlakeR000-120.21010—16:56
21A. NikishinD101010.04220—16:45
37A. SvechnikovR112+110.41000—16:01
11J. StaalC000-100.176205515:30
71T. HallL011000.00010—14:47
27N. EhlersL000-220.25000—14:40
48J. MartinookL000-240.160105012:28
50E. RobinsonL000030.16000—10:33
77M. JankowskiL000020.261005010:31
28W. CarrierL000010.10400—10:11
6M. ReillyD000020.00002—09:30
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32B. Bussi(L)25205.8002.58-2.4258:26

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).