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Mammoth at Predators
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸5
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV FDSNSO, Utah16·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Nashville Predators 5-2. The Predators scored first; the Mammoth answered. The Mammoth led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Carcone's goal at 5:13 of the second period, which took the Mammoth's chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 3.8 to 3.0; shots on goal were UTA 30, NSH 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kailer Yamamoto (1 G, 1 A), 2. Sean Durzi (2 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    K. Yamamoto1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    S. Durzi2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
UTAUTA01031228530
NSHNSH18111010229

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    S. Stamkos(25)PPG
    R. Josi (22)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:43

2nd period

  1. UTA
    C. Keller(16)
    M. Sergachev (27), S. Durzi (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:00
  2. UTA
    M. Carcone(10)
    K. Yamamoto (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:13
  3. UTA
    K. Yamamoto(5)
    M. Sergachev (28), S. Durzi (12)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    8:10
  4. NSH
    J. Marchessault(9)
    B. Skjei (15)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:39

3rd period

  1. UTA
    B. Hayton(6)PPG
    D. Guenther (20), M. Sergachev (29)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +12 ptsVideo
    4-2
    11:02
  2. UTA
    J. Peterka(18)
    D. Guenther (21), B. Hayton (10)
    xG 0.94Video
    5-2
    18:28

Penalties

UTA 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:08UTAKailer Yamamoto · Holdingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 16:23NSHAdam Wilsby · Hookingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

3rd

  • 4:58UTANick Schmaltz · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 10:00NSHRoman Josi · Holding the stickdrawn by Brandon Tanev2 min
  • 19:24UTANick DeSimone · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalUTA goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Michael Carcone, 2nd 5:13 — UTA 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.28M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.22R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.21M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.20F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.20J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.17M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.11R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.10R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09J. Barron · On goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.08M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.08R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.08M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.05N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.04M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.03T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02A. Wilsby · On goal · xG 0.02E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.02E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.02N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01A. Wilsby · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.00F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00O. Wiesblatt · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsNSH
3.85 G
All situations
2 G3.0
1.94 G
Even strength
1 G2.5
0.61 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA43%57%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsNSH
30
Shots on goal
29
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
29
13
Blocked shots
13
23
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD033+110.05110—23:32
88N. SchmidtD000+110.01000—20:21
50S. DurziD022+120.06030—20:14
28I. ColeD000+100.01320—19:42
8N. SchmaltzC000+240.441025019:21
6J. MarinoD000+110.05010—18:28
9C. KellerR101+240.41010—17:52
11D. GuentherR022+220.69210—17:06
82K. StenlundC000010.060004415:41
22J. McBainC000+100.092003815:35
27B. HaytonC112070.531007115:10
53M. CarconeL101+110.0621010015:10
57N. DeSimoneD000+100.00102—14:53
56K. YamamotoR112+210.0911210014:49
77J. PeterkaR101000.98010—14:08
38L. O'BrienC000020.0710010012:11
19D. ButL000-100.1011010011:51
13B. TanevL000030.15300—10:45
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)29272.9312.99+0.9960:00

Season series

UTA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).