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Canucks at Sabres
NHL

Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres

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Vancouver Canucks
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, SNP·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Vancouver Canucks 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan McLeod's goal at 11:24 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Canucks, 5.0 to 2.9; shots on goal were VAN 37, BUF 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canucks win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Thatcher Demko stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 1.6 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 34 of 37 (.919), 2.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A), 2. Bowen Byram (2 A), 3. Zach Metsa (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    B. Byram2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Metsa1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
VANVAN01508314337
BUFBUF291724520

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(21)
    B. Byram (12), O. Power (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:01
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(8)SHG
    A. Tuch (21), M. Samuelsson (14)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    11:24

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(13)
    B. Byram (13), J. Norris (9)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    9:37

3rd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Metsa(1)
    B. Malenstyn (4), J. Greenway (4)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +1 ptsVideo
    0-4
    6:13
  2. VAN
    J. DeBrusk(11)PPG
    K. Sherwood (5), B. Boeser (10)
    snapxG 0.40Video
    1-4
    10:17
  3. VAN
    E. Pettersson(11)
    B. Boeser (11), F. Hronek (23)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-4
    15:16
  4. VAN
    L. Ohgren(3)
    M. Pettersson (8), L. Karlsson (9)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-4
    15:55
  5. BUF
    J. Doan(13)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.38win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:36

Penalties

VAN 2 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:21BUFJosh Norris · Hookingdrawn by Elias Pettersson2 min
  • 10:49BUFBowen Byram · Interferencedrawn by Brock Boeser2 min

2nd

  • 5:09VANTom Willander · Hookingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

3rd

  • 8:26BUFTage Thompson · High sticking double minordrawn by Jake DeBrusk4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalVAN goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan McLeod, 1st 11:24 — BUF 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Doan · Goal · xG 0.38R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.33Z. Metsa · Goal · xG 0.23O. Power · On goal · xG 0.20R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.18J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.18T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.17T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.17A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.16A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.10Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.05B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.05N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.03B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 2.9 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

VANvsBUF
5.03 G
All situations
4 G2.9
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
3.31 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
VAN83%17%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.63 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

VANvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
20
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/4
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
16
8
Blocked shots
14
16
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Vancouver Canucks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD011010.01100—26:20
24Z. BuiumD000-110.08010—22:50
40E. PetterssonC101-230.710103818:41
29M. PetterssonD011000.00200—18:37
6B. BoeserR022-330.551106718:34
91E. KaneL000-230.6700010018:11
44K. SherwoodL011-260.65400—17:37
74J. DeBruskL101-241.03210—16:58
5T. WillanderD000-110.04002—16:40
57T. MyersD000-220.03110—16:26
7P. JosephD000-100.04020—15:34
94L. KarlssonC011+130.33100015:25
63M. SassonC000020.250006314:52
64D. KampfC000-100.002002713:50
92L. OhgrenL101+140.19100—13:09
18D. O'ConnorL000-130.27000—12:23
54A. RätyC000010.140007512:09
21N. HoglanderL000000.04210—10:53
Vancouver Canucks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Demko(L)19154.7892.37-1.6358:51

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).