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Ducks at Capitals
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
4
Washington Capitals
▸7
FinalTV Victory+, MNMT·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Anaheim Ducks 7-4. The Ducks scored first; the Capitals answered. The Capitals led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Sourdif's goal at 18:58 of the first period, which took the Capitals' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.5 to 3.0; shots on goal were ANA 45, WSH 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 2.5 goals below expected; Charlie Lindgren stopped 41 of 45 (.911), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Justin Sourdif (3 G, 2 A), 2. Connor McMichael (4 A), 3. Ryan Leonard (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Sourdif3 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    WSH
    C. McMichael4 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    R. Leonard1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA110218117445
WSHWSH21131325729

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. ANA
    C. Kreider(14)
    O. Zellweger (11)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:33
  2. WSH
    J. Sourdif(6)
    C. McMichael (17), M. Roy (12)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:56
  3. WSH
    J. Sourdif(7)
    C. McMichael (18)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:58

2nd period

  1. WSH
    R. Leonard(9)
    J. Sourdif (9), C. McMichael (19)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:54
  2. WSH
    J. Sourdif(8)
    R. Leonard (16), C. McMichael (20)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-4
    7:30
  3. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(16)
    M. Fehérváry (10), J. Carlson (22)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-5
    8:52
  4. ANA
    A. Killorn(3)
    R. Johnston (10)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +3 ptsVideo
    2-5
    12:56
  5. ANA
    J. Trouba(7)
    T. Terry (27)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-5
    14:12

3rd period

  1. ANA
    B. Sennecke(14)
    C. Gauthier (20), J. LaCombe (18)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-5
    9:22
  2. WSH
    J. Carlson(9)EN
    N. Dowd (8), M. Fehérváry (11)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-6
    18:46
  3. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(17)EN
    J. Sourdif (10)
    snapxG 0.41Video
    4-7
    19:18

Penalties

ANA 14 PIM·WSH 16 PIM

1st

  • 0:40WSHAlex Ovechkin · Hookingdrawn by Olen Zellweger2 min
  • 6:38ANAJacob Trouba · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Duhaime5 min
  • 6:38WSHBrandon Duhaime · Fightingdrawn by Jacob Trouba5 min
  • 10:29ANAAlex Killorn · Holdingdrawn by John Carlson2 min
  • 20:00WSHMartin Fehérváry · High stickingdrawn by Beckett Sennecke2 min

2nd

  • 0:17ANALeo Carlsson · Trippingdrawn by Matt Roy2 min
  • 5:21WSHDylan McIlrath · Fightingdrawn by Ross Johnston5 min
  • 5:21ANARoss Johnston · Fightingdrawn by Dylan McIlrath5 min
  • 11:51WSHJohn Carlson · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Ryan Strome0 min
  • 18:16ANAOlen Zellweger · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Ryan Leonard0 min
  • 19:45WSHJohn Carlson · Hookingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalANA goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Justin Sourdif, 1st 18:58 — WSH 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.43A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.41R. Leonard · Missed · xG 0.25J. Sourdif · Goal · xG 0.18S. Milano · Missed · xG 0.18D. Strome · Missed · xG 0.15R. Leonard · Missed · xG 0.14M. Roy · On goal · xG 0.13R. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.13J. Sourdif · Goal · xG 0.12D. Strome · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.11H. Lapierre · On goal · xG 0.09E. Frank · On goal · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.08M. Fehérváry · On goal · xG 0.08J. Sourdif · Goal · xG 0.07R. Leonard · Goal · xG 0.07J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.06E. Frank · Missed · xG 0.06E. Frank · Missed · xG 0.05M. Fehérváry · On goal · xG 0.05E. Frank · On goal · xG 0.04D. Strome · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.04C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.03S. Milano · On goal · xG 0.03R. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.03C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Frank · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01M. Roy · On goal · xG 0.01D. Strome · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH7 G · 3.5 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsWSH
3.04 G
All situations
5 G3.5
2.74 G
Even strength
5 G2.0
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA56%44%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.97 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsWSH
45
Shots on goal
29
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/3
Power play
0/2
14
Penalty minutes
16
13
Hits
20
7
Blocked shots
22
12
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98P. MintyukovD000-130.15110—22:50
74I. MooreD000-110.01000—21:09
51O. ZellwegerD011+240.09000—19:40
65J. TroubaD101-330.06025—18:48
45B. SenneckeR101-150.53110—18:25
61C. GauthierL011-140.350005018:20
64M. GranlundC000-520.320005017:41
19T. TerryR011020.12000—17:29
7R. GudasD000+100.00210—17:29
2J. LaCombeD011-450.12000—17:27
23M. McTavishC000020.042105017:06
91L. CarlssonC000010.100023316:54
20C. KreiderL101010.14110—14:49
25R. PoehlingC000+110.041003112:53
13N. NesterenkoC000-330.14200012:25
17A. KillornL101+150.360025012:07
16R. StromeC000-410.26100010:51
44R. JohnstonL011+120.17205—10:10
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(L)24195.7922.48-2.5240:00
1L. Dostal3301.0000.17+0.1719:27

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).