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Maple Leafs at Predators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, SN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Evangelista's goal at 9:18 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.4 to 2.7; shots on goal were TOR 22, NSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Juuse Saros stopped 19 of 22 (.864). Three stars: 1. Luke Evangelista (1 G), 2. Adam Wilsby (1 G), 3. Juuse Saros (19 saves, .864).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    L. Evangelista1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    A. Wilsby1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros19 saves, .864

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR171718322
NSHNSH010214310534

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    N. Roy(3)
    B. McMann (7), N. Robertson (7)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:32

2nd period

  1. NSH
    E. Haula(5)PPG
    R. Josi (13), S. Stamkos (6)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:56
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(14)
    M. Maccelli (6), J. McCabe (12)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:57
  3. NSH
    A. Wilsby(1)
    R. O'Reilly (18)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    19:26

3rd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(5)
    B. Skjei (10)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-3
    9:18
  2. NSH
    S. Stamkos(13)EN
    F. Forsberg (12)
    wristxG 0.96win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:25
  3. TOR
    B. McMann(9)
    N. Robertson (8), E. Cowan (7)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-4
    19:06
  4. NSH
    C. Smith(4)EN
    B. Skjei (11), M. McCarron (5)
    snapxG 0.59win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:51

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 6:14NSHCole Smith · Hookingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 12:56TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

2nd

  • 3:36TORJake McCabe · Trippingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 18:43NSHNicolas Hague · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 18:43TORSimon Benoit · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Nicolas Hague2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTOR goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Luke Evangelista, 3rd 9:18 — NSH 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.96C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.59C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.33R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.22S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.20E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.13R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.12C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.11E. Haula · Goal · xG 0.11R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.08L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.08E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06A. Wilsby · Goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.05M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.04M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · Goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03R. Schaefer · Missed · xG 0.03A. Wilsby · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02A. Wilsby · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hague · Missed · xG 0.02L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.01N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01R. Schaefer · Missed · xG 0.01
NSH5 G · 4.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNSH
2.73 G
All situations
3 G4.4
2.23 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR47%53%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.61 – 2.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNSH
22
Shots on goal
34
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/1
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
20
23
Blocked shots
12
20
Giveaways
13
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28T. StecherD000000.01120—22:22
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000-200.00330—22:15
22J. McCabeD011010.03332—21:57
44M. RiellyD000020.04160—19:19
88W. NylanderR000-220.22000—18:56
23M. KniesL000-310.11020—18:28
34A. MatthewsC000-330.420126018:23
91J. TavaresC101-220.182005817:45
2S. BenoitD000000.02232—16:27
63M. MaccelliL011-220.28010—16:19
53E. CowanR011+100.00010—16:17
55N. RoyC101+220.121106015:54
51P. MyersD000+100.00400—14:07
89N. RobertsonL022+210.24100—12:36
24S. LaughtonC000+100.001006912:06
74B. McMannC112+230.09000011:33
19C. JarnkrokC000010.22100010:58
81D. JoshuaC000020.73100010:35
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)32293.9062.84-0.1658:23

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).