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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
0
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸2
FinalTV NHLN, The Spot·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Rielly's goal at 16:26 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were TBL 29, TOR 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Dennis Hildeby stopped 29 of 29 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dennis Hildeby (29 saves, 1.000), 2. Morgan Rielly (1 G), 3. Jonas Johansson (23 saves, .958).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    D. Hildeby29 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    J. Johansson23 saves, .958

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0150509029
TORTOR1100817225

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(5)
    E. Cowan (6), J. Tavares (17)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    16:26

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(12)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.36win prob +2 ptsVideo
    0-2
    19:59

Penalties

TBL 24 PIM·TOR 12 PIM

1st

  • 9:26TBLJack Finley · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min

2nd

  • 18:43TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

3rd

  • 3:00TORBobby McMann · Match penaltydrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand5 min
  • 3:00TBLGage Goncalves · Kneeingdrawn by Dakota Mermis5 min
  • 3:00TBLMax Crozier · Fightingdrawn by Dakota Joshua5 min
  • 3:00TORDakota Joshua · Fightingdrawn by Max Crozier5 min
  • 3:00TBLGage Goncalves · Game misconduct10 min
  • 15:03TBLJake Guentzel · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Morgan Rielly, 1st 16:26 — TOR 53% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.43A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.36S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.26A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.12E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.04J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.04M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02D. Mermis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.00B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.6 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
1.80 G
All situations
1 G2.6
1.70 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL49%51%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 1.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
29
Shots on goal
25
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/2
24
Penalty minutes
12
16
Hits
20
8
Blocked shots
14
19
Giveaways
10
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86N. KucherovR000-120.08100—24:38
43D. RaddyshD000-120.05100—23:42
78E. LillebergD000-100.00110—21:13
90J. MoserD000-110.03020—21:12
59J. GuentzelC000-240.38012020:53
71A. CirelliC000-140.240104020:51
51C. D'AstousD000030.04120—20:18
38B. HagelL000010.110005019:02
21B. PointC000-140.341004018:48
77V. HedmanD000-110.01100—17:43
37Y. GourdeC000-110.022004314:38
24M. CrozierD000000.00005—14:02
20N. PaulL000-100.014005013:46
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.332005013:03
29P. HolmbergR000010.04110—12:52
22O. BjorkstrandR000000.04000—09:30
62J. FinleyC000010.011026706:39
93G. GoncalvesC000020.110015005:25
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(L)24231.9581.85+0.8557:45

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).