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Mammoth at Stars
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
3
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV Utah16, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Utah Mammoth 4-3. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Stars led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack McBain's goal at 16:14 of the second period, which took the Mammoth's chances from 26% to 47%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.1 to 3.3; shots on goal were UTA 30, DAL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Vitek Vanecek stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 0.6 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Clayton Keller, 2. Wyatt Johnston (1 G), 3. Mikko Rantanen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    C. Keller
  2. ★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Rantanen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
UTAUTA2811309330
DALDAL11131205428

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    L. Cooley(14)
    D. Guenther (10), K. Yamamoto (3)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:57
  2. UTA
    K. Rooney(1)
    J. Marino (11), M. Carcone (4)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    12:17
  3. DAL
    R. Hintz(8)PPG
    M. Rantanen (19), M. Heiskanen (18)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +8 ptsVideo
    2-1
    17:38

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(2)
    A. Petrovic (6)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    8:16
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(15)
    K. Capobianco (3), J. Hryckowian (5)
    backhandxG 0.45win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-3
    9:18
  3. UTA
    J. McBain(2)
    L. Crouse (5), J. Marino (12)
    backhandxG 0.31win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-3
    16:14
  4. DAL
    W. Johnston(13)PPG
    M. Rantanen (20), M. Heiskanen (19)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-4
    18:33

Penalties

UTA 10 PIM·DAL 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:50UTAKailer Yamamoto · Trippingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 6:32DALRoope Hintz · Slashingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 17:19UTASean Durzi · High sticking double minordrawn by Jamie Benn4 min

2nd

  • 10:48DALSam Steel · Hookingdrawn by Nate Schmidt2 min
  • 18:05UTAKevin Stenlund · Trippingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 18:05UTAIan Cole · Trippingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalUTA goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jack McBain, 2nd 16:14 — UTA 26% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.45M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.37E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.29W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.25J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.23J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.21J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.20R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.19M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.18M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.14J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.13M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.13R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.06R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.05J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Hryckowian · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.04W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.04J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02V. Kolyachonok · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01K. Capobianco · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL4 G · 4.1 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsDAL
3.33 G
All situations
4 G4.1
3.03 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.30 G
Power play
2 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA51%49%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.32 – 3.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsDAL
30
Shots on goal
28
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/2
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
19
10
Blocked shots
6
18
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD000020.15000—25:10
50S. DurziD000-120.04004—22:29
8N. SchmaltzC000-110.111106721:06
6J. MarinoD022+310.01000—20:50
88N. SchmidtD000+220.04110—19:37
9C. KellerR000-150.71000—18:07
28I. ColeD000-100.00122—17:37
77J. PeterkaR000020.29010—17:23
11D. GuentherR011060.83200—16:35
67L. CrouseL011030.34330—16:17
92L. CooleyC101+110.20210015:24
22J. McBainC101020.396005514:59
82K. StenlundC000-110.011027313:18
56K. YamamotoR011+100.000026712:33
26D. SimashevD000-100.00210—12:31
53M. CarconeL011+200.00100—11:33
25K. RooneyC101+110.160002509:44
13B. TanevL000+110.04200—09:35
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41V. Vanecek(L)28244.8573.40-0.6058:25

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).