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Sabres at Avalanche
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV KUSA, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gavin Brindley's goal at 16:22 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.6 to 3.0; shots on goal were BUF 21, COL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 27 of 30 (.900); Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 18 of 21 (.857). Three stars: 1. Martin Necas (2 G, 2 A), 2. Gavin Brindley (1 G, 1 A), 3. Artturi Lehkonen (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Necas2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    G. Brindley1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    A. Lehkonen1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF261807321
COLCOL36112216634

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    M. Necas(11)
    C. Makar (18), D. Toews (7)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:52
  2. COL
    A. Lehkonen(8)
    S. Malinski (8), M. Necas (11)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    6:10
  3. BUF
    B. Byram(2)
    T. Thompson (7), A. Tuch (9)
    snapxG 0.42win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    7:47
  4. COL
    B. Nelson(4)
    R. Colton (7), G. Brindley (3)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-3
    9:46
  5. BUF
    J. Greenway(1)
    O. Power (5), J. Doan (6)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    13:28

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(7)PPG
    I. Rosen (2), P. Krebs (4)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:56
  2. COL
    G. Brindley(4)
    J. Manson (2), B. Burns (8)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:22

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Necas(12)
    N. MacKinnon (19), S. Girard (1)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-5
    16:53
  2. COL
    G. Landeskog(2)EN
    M. Necas (12)
    snapxG 0.86Video
    3-6
    18:11

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 19:07COLserved by R. Colton · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

2nd

  • 6:30COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 8:45BUFOwen Power · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 13:50COLNathan MacKinnon · Slashingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min

3rd

  • 3:01BUFTyson Kozak · High stickingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 14:14COLParker Kelly · High stickingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalBUF goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Gavin Brindley, 2nd 16:22 — COL 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.86G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.40A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.19G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.18B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.18M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.16M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.14A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.10A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.09S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.08D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.08M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05T. Makar · Missed · xG 0.05T. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.05J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.04M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.04J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.04B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Bardakov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Bardakov · Missed · xG 0.03T. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.03G. Brindley · Goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.00J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 4.6 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCOL
3.03 G
All situations
5 G4.6
1.82 G
Even strength
5 G2.5
1.31 G
Power play
0 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF45%55%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 3.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCOL
21
Shots on goal
34
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
16
Hits
22
11
Blocked shots
13
23
Giveaways
13
9
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4B. ByramD101040.47110—24:21
23M. SamuelssonD000-310.14220—23:13
21C. TimminsD000-100.01010—21:09
25O. PowerD011-200.08002—20:12
72T. ThompsonC112-150.790106518:37
86N. OstlundC000-220.25000818:18
63I. RosenR011-220.39200—17:33
22J. QuinnR000000.15000—17:15
12J. GreenwayL101-210.12010—16:07
71R. McLeodC000-110.210102515:40
89A. TuchR011020.19000—15:28
48T. KozakC000-110.051124214:22
91J. DoanR011-110.06100—14:06
8M. KesselringD000000.00000—13:48
19P. KrebsC011-200.014105713:21
29B. MalenstynL000-110.12410—11:54
44J. DunneC000-100.001105011:13
78J. BrysonD000-100.00000—10:18
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)30273.9002.88-0.1252:55
34A. Lyon312.3330.43-1.5706:10

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).