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Hurricanes at Maple Leafs
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
4
FinalTV FDSNSO, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Logan Stankoven's goal at 12:13 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.3 to 2.5; shots on goal were CAR 47, TOR 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Brandon Bussi stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 1.5 goals below expected; Dennis Hildeby stopped 42 of 47 (.894), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Logan Stankoven (1 G, 1 A), 2. William Nylander (2 G), 3. Seth Jarvis (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    L. Stankoven1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR212113222547
TORTOR3101802420

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(7)
    M. Knies (14), M. Rielly (11)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:00
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(6)PPG
    N. Ehlers (6), K. Miller (5)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:34
  3. CAR
    S. Jarvis(10)
    A. Svechnikov (3), A. Nikishin (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    14:31
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(9)
    B. McMann (3), N. Robertson (5)
    snapxG 0.40win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:31
  5. TOR
    W. Nylander(8)PPG
    J. Tavares (12), A. Matthews (5)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-3
    19:01

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(9)
    J. McCabe (7), M. Knies (15)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-4
    11:03
  2. CAR
    S. Walker(4)
    W. Carrier (3)
    wristxG 0.00win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:51

3rd period

  1. CAR
    T. Hall(3)
    J. Blake (7), L. Stankoven (4)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +25 ptsVideo
    4-4
    3:20
  2. CAR
    L. Stankoven(5)
    K. Miller (6), N. Ehlers (7)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +36 ptsVideo
    5-4
    12:13

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 8:00TORJake McCabe · Holdingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 17:48CARK'Andre Miller · Hookingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 20:00CARCharles Alexis Legault · Roughingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 20:00TORBobby McMann · Roughingdrawn by Charles Alexis Legault2 min

2nd

  • 0:31TORWilliam Nylander · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 7:06TORJake McCabe · Interferencedrawn by Eric Robinson2 min
  • 17:47CARJackson Blake · Slashingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min

3rd

  • 4:56CARJordan Staal · Trippingdrawn by Nicolas Roy2 min
  • 7:00TORWilliam Nylander · Hookingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCAR goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Logan Stankoven, 3rd 12:13 — CAR 48% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.40J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.39A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.24J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.23W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.16W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.11N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09S. Blais · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.5 xG · 25 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTOR
4.35 G
All situations
4 G2.5
2.74 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
1.61 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR77%23%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.16 – 2.38

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTOR
47
Shots on goal
20
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/4
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
10
13
Hits
21
9
Blocked shots
23
12
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26S. WalkerD101020.10220—26:43
19K. MillerD022+140.09012—25:33
20S. AhoC101+150.310003320:26
24S. JarvisR101+150.46100—19:59
64J. NystromD000+120.08010—19:29
21A. NikishinD011+120.04120—19:08
37A. SvechnikovR011+160.6730010017:30
48J. MartinookL000-110.021006716:52
27N. EhlersL022+150.34000—15:59
53J. BlakeR011+230.58002—15:32
6M. ReillyD000-110.01110—15:23
11J. StaalC000-100.140126015:04
22L. StankovenC112+220.190003314:14
71T. HallL101060.770005012:59
28W. CarrierL011-110.35200—12:25
82J. KotkaniemiC000-120.171102709:51
50E. RobinsonL000-100.00000—08:25
62C. LegaultD000000.00102—07:15
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32B. Bussi(W)20164.8002.51-1.4960:00

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).