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Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV NBCSCA, SCRIPPS·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The San Jose Sharks beat the Florida Panthers 3-1. The Sharks scored first and never trailed. The Sharks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Macklin Celebrini's goal at 17:25 of the first period, which took the Sharks' chances from 53% to 68%. Expected goals were close — FLA 3.3, SJS 3.1; shots on goal were FLA 39, SJS 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Daniil Tarasov stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Yaroslav Askarov stopped 38 of 39 (.974), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Yaroslav Askarov (38 saves, .974), 2. Macklin Celebrini (1 G), 3. Brad Marchand (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    SJS
    Y. Askarov38 saves, .974
  2. ★★
    SJS
    M. Celebrini1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    B. Marchand1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA06120013139
SJSSJS1141316323

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    17:25

2nd period

  1. SJS
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    3:06
  2. FLA
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:34

3rd period

  1. SJS
    C. Graf (4), W. Smith (10)
    wristxG 0.90win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:09

Penalties

FLA 4 PIM·SJS 10 PIM

1st

  • 10:03FLANoah Gregor · High stickingdrawn by Vincent Desharnais2 min
  • 15:19SJSJeff Skinner · Trippingdrawn by Mackie Samoskevich2 min
  • 18:17SJSPhilipp Kurashev · Trippingdrawn by Anton Lundell2 min

2nd

  • 13:28SJSRyan Reaves · Trippingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min
  • 15:18SJSAlexander Wennberg · High stickingdrawn by Mackie Samoskevich2 min

3rd

  • 11:39SJSMacklin Celebrini · Holdingdrawn by Mackie Samoskevich2 min
  • 14:12FLASam Bennett · Trippingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalFLA goalFinal: SJS 100%

Biggest swing: Macklin Celebrini, 1st 17:25 — SJS 53% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Wennberg · Goal · xG 0.90T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.28M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.27C. Graf · Missed · xG 0.24R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.20M. Celebrini · Goal · xG 0.18A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.17W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.12J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.11M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.09A. Gaudette · Goal · xG 0.09T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.07E. Cardwell · Missed · xG 0.06R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.03T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.02C. Graf · Missed · xG 0.01B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.01B. Goodrow · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.01W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.00T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.00S. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS3 G · 3.1 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsSJS
3.31 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.61 G
Even strength
2 G1.2
1.70 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA76%24%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.24 – 1.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsSJS
39
Shots on goal
23
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/5
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
23
Hits
17
11
Blocked shots
18
15
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3S. JonesD000010.12100—26:44
15A. LundellC011010.111105621:28
13S. ReinhartC000-171.36010021:07
63B. MarchandL101040.34200—20:49
23C. VerhaegheC000-120.103007520:36
77N. MikkolaD000-140.07130—19:35
5A. EkbladD000-210.06020—19:29
27E. LuostarinenC011030.35420018:52
17E. RodriguesC000-240.221003318:31
42G. ForslingD000040.12010—18:07
9S. BennettC000-130.112026015:00
11M. SamoskevichR000000.15000—14:41
6D. SebrangoD000010.01100—12:53
2J. PetryD000010.01000—12:05
70J. BoqvistC000020.1530010010:29
79C. SchwindtR000-110.041005709:45
18N. GregorL000-100.00112—09:31
10A. GreerL000-100.00200—08:10
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Tarasov(L)22202.9091.73-0.2758:08

Season series

SJS leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).