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Flames at Maple Leafs
NHL

Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV SNF, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Calgary Flames 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Domi's goal at 17:56 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 3.0; shots on goal were CGY 29, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Dustin Wolf stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 0.6 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 26 of 29 (.897). Three stars: 1. Matthew Knies (2 G, 1 A), 2. Max Domi (2 G), 3. John Tavares (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Knies2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Domi2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY1918112329
TORTOR011216210437

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Frost(2)
    J. Huberdeau (2), N. Kadri (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:33

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(2)
    S. Lorentz (3), M. Maccelli (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:13
  2. CGY
    J. Farabee(1)
    J. Kirkland (1), R. Andersson (1)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-1
    17:55
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(3)
    W. Nylander (12)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-2
    19:25

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(4)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.45win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:45
  2. CGY
    S. Honzek(1)
    M. Backlund (4)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +37 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:49
  3. TOR
    M. Domi(3)
    M. Knies (9), J. Tavares (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-4
    17:56

Penalties

CGY 8 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:11TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Holdingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 11:06CGYConnor Zary · Interferencedrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 14:02CGYserved by M. Coronato · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 16:06CGYJonathan Huberdeau · Slashingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 18:31TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

3rd

  • 3:33CGYJoel Hanley · High stickingdrawn by Matias Maccelli2 min
  • 5:40TORMatthew Knies · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCGY goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Max Domi, 3rd 17:56 — TOR 52% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.45M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.26J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.20A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.16M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.13S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.11S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.10B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.04B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.03D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 3.5 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsTOR
3.03 G
All situations
4 G3.5
2.43 G
Even strength
3 G1.7
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY47%53%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.99 – 3.17

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsTOR
29
Shots on goal
37
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
18
10
Blocked shots
15
30
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD011010.06140—25:48
91N. KadriC011050.37100023:33
7K. BahlD000-100.00010—22:58
16M. FrostC101+140.271007021:37
10J. HuberdeauL011030.47002—21:15
52M. WeegarD000010.15020—20:50
24J. BeanD000010.05000—18:48
20B. ColemanL000-130.25200—16:34
11M. BacklundC011-110.011005016:27
86J. FarabeeL101+120.6003010016:04
19Z. ParekhD000010.02100—15:54
17Y. SharangovichC000020.10000012:18
47C. ZaryC000020.12202011:43
29S. HonzekL101010.32500—11:41
44J. HanleyD000+110.01102—11:39
27M. CoronatoR000-100.00000—11:21
23J. KirklandC011+100.082005008:38
70R. LombergL000010.13300—08:06
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32D. Wolf(L)37334.8923.36-0.6458:34

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).