Oilers at Red Wings 2-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Edmonton Oilers

Detroit Red Wings

▸4

FinalTV FDSNDET, SN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 8:51 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were EDM 18, DET 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Stuart Skinner stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.9 goals below expected; John Gibson stopped 16 of 18 (.889). Three stars: 1. Emmitt Finnie (2 G, 1 A), 2. Dylan Larkin (2 G, 2 A), 3. Brett Kulak (2 A).

Three stars

★
E. Finnie2 G, 1 A
★★
D. Larkin2 G, 2 A
★★★
B. Kulak2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	03	18	17	218
DET	07	310	18	425

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

D. Larkin(4)
B. Chiarot (2), L. Raymond (2)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +18 ptsVideo
0-1
8:51
E. Finnie(1)
J. Bernard-Docker (1), D. Larkin (5)
wristxG 0.29win prob +17 ptsVideo
0-2
11:54
N. Philp(2)
V. Podkolzin (2), B. Kulak (1)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
1-2
12:25
D. Larkin(5)
E. Finnie (3), J. Gibson (1)
wristxG 0.01win prob +15 ptsVideo
1-3
17:05

3rd period

L. Draisaitl(4)
B. Kulak (2), M. Ekholm (1)
snapxG 0.23win prob +14 ptsVideo
2-3
7:33
E. Finnie(2)EN
L. Raymond (3), D. Larkin (6)
wristxG 0.49win prob +6 ptsVideo
2-4
18:38

Penalties

0 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

9:32Andrew Copp · Trippingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, 2nd 8:51 — DET 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.8 xG · 31 att DET

4 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.82 G
All situations: 3 G2.6; 1.52 G
Even strength: 3 G2.1; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.77 – 2.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

18
Shots on goal: 25; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/1
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 2; 19
Hits: 24; 21
Blocked shots: 11; 21
Giveaways: 17; 3
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
2E. BouchardD	0	0	0	-2	3	0.17	1	2	—	23:07
97C. McDavidC	0	0	0	-2	2	0.15	0	1	20	22:04
25D. NurseD	0	0	0	-2	3	0.07	2	5	—	21:15
29L. DraisaitlC	1	0	1	-1	1	0.48	1	0	67	20:33
14M. EkholmD	0	1	1	-3	2	0.24	0	4	—	19:59
27B. KulakD	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	0	1	—	19:13
28J. RoslovicC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	18:51
49T. EmbersonD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	1	3	—	18:31
88A. MangiapaneL	0	0	0	0	0	0.12	0	1	—	17:42
92V. PodkolzinR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.07	5	0	—	17:11
51T. StecherD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	1	—	16:00
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	36	15:42
22M. SavoieC	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	0	0	14:47
19A. HenriqueC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	2	50	13:51
48N. PhilpC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.07	2	0	50	12:26
53I. HowardL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	0	0	—	12:00
10T. FredericC	0	0	0	-2	0	0.04	2	0	100	11:21
42K. KapanenR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	—	05:43

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
74S. Skinner(L)	24	21	3	.875	2.12	-0.88	59:44

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 192@4this game
Dec 111@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score