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Senators at Lightning
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
FinalTV The Spot, TSN5·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-4. The Senators came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Shane Pinto's goal at 18:13 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were OTT 34, TBL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.8 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Claude Giroux (1 G), 2. Brayden Point (1 G, 2 A), 3. Brady Tkachuk (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11321328534
TBLTBL3140714425

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    O. Bjorkstrand(1)PPG
    J. Guentzel (1), B. Point (1)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:35
  2. TBL
    B. Point(1)
    J. Guentzel (2), D. Raddysh (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:00
  3. OTT
    D. Cozens(1)PPG
    B. Tkachuk (1), J. Sanderson (1)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:18
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(1)PPG
    V. Hedman (1), B. Point (2)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    14:46

2nd period

  1. OTT
    A. Zub(1)
    B. Tkachuk (2), T. Stützle (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    0:42
  2. OTT
    S. Pinto(1)
    A. Zub (1), B. Tkachuk (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:09

3rd period

  1. OTT
    S. Pinto(2)
    J. Sanderson (2)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +47 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:13
  2. OTT
    C. Giroux(1)EN
    S. Pinto (1), A. Zub (2)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +3 ptsVideo
    5-3
    19:12
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(2)
    D. Raddysh (2), V. Hedman (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-4
    19:46

Penalties

OTT 20 PIM·TBL 22 PIM

1st

  • 2:26OTTKurtis MacDermid · Fightingdrawn by Curtis Douglas5 min
  • 2:26TBLCurtis Douglas · Fightingdrawn by Kurtis MacDermid5 min
  • 4:45OTTDylan Cozens · Holdingdrawn by Gage Goncalves2 min
  • 9:10TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 12:34OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 12:34TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 12:34TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 12:34OTTThomas Chabot · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 12:38TBLEmil Lilleberg · Fightingdrawn by Donovan Sebrango5 min
  • 12:38OTTDonovan Sebrango · Fightingdrawn by Emil Lilleberg5 min
  • 12:58OTTDavid Perron · Holdingdrawn by Mitchell Chaffee2 min
  • 15:19TBLPontus Holmberg · Holdingdrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min

2nd

  • 7:53TBLMitchell Chaffee · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 18:31TBLMitchell Chaffee · Holdingdrawn by Jake Sanderson2 min

3rd

  • 2:23OTTArtem Zub · Interferencedrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalOTT goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Shane Pinto, 3rd 18:13 — OTT 48% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.27N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.23O. Bjorkstrand · Goal · xG 0.19J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.14N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.10O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.05M. Crozier · Missed · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.04G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.03O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.03M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.03M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.01C. Douglas · On goal · xG 0.01B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.01B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.00Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.00M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 2.2 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTBL
3.54 G
All situations
4 G2.2
2.43 G
Even strength
2 G1.2
0.61 G
Power play
2 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT62%38%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.88 – 2.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTBL
34
Shots on goal
25
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/4
Power play
2/3
20
Penalty minutes
22
37
Hits
40
10
Blocked shots
18
13
Giveaways
16
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD022+330.45230—23:10
72T. ChabotD000030.11032—22:00
2A. ZubD123+450.11202—20:44
3N. JensenD000-100.00200—19:35
7B. TkachukL033+150.543025019:24
12S. PintoC213+220.310005719:21
18T. StützleC011+130.381004019:03
22M. AmadioR000000.00310—18:54
71R. GreigC000+140.511003318:09
20F. ZetterlundL000+100.06710—16:34
24D. CozensC101-120.123126715:35
28C. GirouxR101+220.632004015:11
89L. EllerC000010.054107114:20
37D. SebrangoD000-100.00105—14:18
33N. MatinpaloD000-110.00100—13:35
57D. PerronL000-120.26102—12:37
21N. CousinsC000010.03300010:46
23K. MacDermidL000000.00105—02:13
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)25214.8402.23-1.7759:53

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).