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Stars at Red Wings
NHL

Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
4
Detroit Red Wings
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNDETX·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Dallas Stars 6-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonatan Berggren's goal at 1:15 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 28% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.9 to 3.5; shots on goal were DAL 28, DET 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 2.5 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 24 of 28 (.857). Three stars: 1. Lucas Raymond (1 G, 2 A), 2. Moritz Seider (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jonatan Berggren (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    L. Raymond1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    M. Seider1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    J. Berggren1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL1721417428
DETDET214010413637

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    A. Johansson(3)
    D. Larkin (38), J. Berggren (11)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:27
  2. DAL
    L. Bichsel(4)
    J. Benn (32), M. Rantanen (56)
    pokexG 0.45win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:15
  3. DET
    A. DeBrincat(37)
    P. Kane (37), M. Kasper (17)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    13:52

2nd period

  1. DAL
    E. Dadonov(20)
    R. Hintz (39)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:00
  2. DAL
    C. Blackwell(6)SHG
    S. Steel (19), C. Ceci (20)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:25

3rd period

  1. DET
    J. Berggren(11)
    L. Raymond (50), M. Seider (34)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-3
    1:15
  2. DET
    M. Seider(8)PPG
    L. Raymond (51), D. Larkin (39)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:19
  3. DET
    L. Raymond(27)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-5
    9:49
  4. DAL
    W. Johnston(33)
    J. Benn (33), B. Smith (5)
    snapxG 0.43win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-5
    12:56
  5. DET
    V. Tarasenko(11)EN
    M. Rasmussen (9), M. Seider (35)
    snapxG 0.94win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-6
    18:04

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:07DALRoope Hintz · Holding the stickdrawn by Marco Kasper2 min

2nd

  • 1:41DETSimon Edvinsson · Hookingdrawn by Cody Ceci2 min
  • 6:32DETSimon Edvinsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:06DALJamie Benn · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 4:16DALEvgenii Dadonov · Trippingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min
  • 13:48DETJeff Petry · Holdingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalDAL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Jonatan Berggren, 3rd 1:15 — DET 28% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.94M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.35T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.18D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.16M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.15A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.15V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.13L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.11J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.09J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.07A. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.06S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06J. Berggren · Goal · xG 0.06P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.05L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.05M. Seider · Goal · xG 0.04M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.03L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.03J. Berggren · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.02T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.01T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.00B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.00
DET6 G · 3.5 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsDET
3.94 G
All situations
5 G3.5
3.13 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL70%30%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.75 – 2.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsDET
28
Shots on goal
37
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
20
11
Blocked shots
12
13
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3M. DumbaD000-120.02200—21:53
96M. RantanenR011+120.33110—19:55
53W. JohnstonC101030.510005018:39
44C. CeciD011020.02020—18:34
46I. LyubushkinD000+210.02000—18:27
14J. BennL022030.421026917:42
28A. PetrovicD000010.23130—17:31
95M. DucheneC000-120.190002917:25
64M. GranlundC000-200.0520010017:01
2B. SmithD011010.07110—16:46
21J. RobertsonL000-310.19000—16:30
6L. BichselD101-120.45300—16:10
24R. HintzC011-210.171128815:56
22M. BourqueC000030.701103315:29
63E. DadonovL101-220.30102—15:18
18S. SteelC011+100.001106011:55
10O. BäckC000000.021105010:51
15C. BlackwellC101+120.211005010:30
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)36315.8612.55-2.4559:25

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).