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Islanders at Predators
NHL

New York Islanders at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
6
Nashville Predators
▸7
Final/OTTV FDSNSO, MSGSN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the New York Islanders 7-6 in overtime, Fedor Svechkov scoring at 1:56. The Predators came back from two goals down. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Fedor Svechkov's goal at 1:56 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.9, NSH 3.0; shots on goal were NYI 22, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.9 goals below expected; Justus Annunen stopped 16 of 22 (.727), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (2 G, 2 A), 2. Jonathan Marchessault (3 A), 3. Michael Bunting (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Marchessault3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Bunting1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NYINYI28252801622
NSHNSH2122112712732

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(19)
    R. Pulock (18), J. Pageau (26)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:16
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(18)
    M. Bunting (17), L. Evangelista (19)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:44
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(30)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:45
  4. NYI
    A. Lee(28)
    B. Horvat (28), A. Pelech (20)
    deflectedxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    16:12

2nd period

  1. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(20)
    J. Pageau (27), M. Tsyplakov (25)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:36
  2. NSH
    S. Stamkos(26)PPG
    N. Blankenburg (12), J. Marchessault (31)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    3-3
    7:24
  3. NYI
    M. Tsyplakov(9)
    S. Holmstrom (23), J. Pageau (28)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +20 ptsVideo
    4-3
    12:09
  4. NSH
    M. McCarron(5)
    B. Skjei (19), J. Marchessault (32)
    deflectedxG 0.31win prob +20 pts
    4-4
    13:25

3rd period

  1. NYI
    K. Palmieri(24)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +40 ptsVideo
    5-4
    15:21
  2. NYI
    S. Mayfield(3)SHG
    S. Holmstrom (24), A. Romanov (16)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +16 ptsVideo
    6-4
    16:19
  3. NSH
    S. Stamkos(27)PPG
    J. Marchessault (33), F. Forsberg (42)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    6-5
    17:53
  4. NSH
    M. Bunting(18)
    S. Stamkos (23), B. Skjei (20)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +46 ptsVideo
    6-6
    19:20

Overtime

  1. NSH
    F. Svechkov(8)
    B. Skjei (21), S. Stamkos (24)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 ptsVideo
    6-7
    1:56

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

2nd

  • 7:17NYITony DeAngelo · Holdingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 10:02NSHRyan O'Reilly · Trippingdrawn by Kyle MacLean2 min

3rd

  • 8:55NSHSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min
  • 15:57NYIRyan Pulock · Hookingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 16:38NSHserved by L. Evangelista · Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
  • 17:01NYIBo Horvat · Trippingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalNYI goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Fedor Svechkov, OT 1:56 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.49M. McCarron · Goal · xG 0.31M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.19F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.15J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.14M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.14J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.14F. Svechkov · Goal · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.06B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04Z. L'Heureux · Missed · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.03M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.03L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Barron · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.02J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.02L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01J. Barron · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.01M. Del Gaizo · Missed · xG 0.01J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00J. Barron · On goal · xG 0.00J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH7 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsNSH
2.96 G
All situations
7 G3.0
2.45 G
Even strength
5 G2.4
0.40 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI48%52%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.90 – 2.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsNSH
22
Shots on goal
32
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
26
Hits
21
17
Blocked shots
13
16
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD011+310.09230—23:33
8N. DobsonD000010.17110—21:36
4T. DeAngeloD000-110.06012—20:46
21K. PalmieriC101+110.11000020:38
6R. PulockD011+100.00212—19:47
28A. RomanovD011-210.04310—19:34
14B. HorvatC011020.351126819:21
44J. PageauC033+220.362106217:59
27A. LeeL101+110.04100—17:46
24S. MayfieldD101+210.15210—16:49
10S. HolmstromR224+220.64000—16:33
7M. TsyplakovR112+320.29130—14:56
53C. CizikasC000010.083105414:41
18P. EngvallL000010.0100010014:37
20H. FaschingR000010.13100—14:25
32K. MacLeanC000-220.341005710:18
16M. GatcombC000-220.0352010009:27
17M. MartinL000-200.03110—08:59
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin23194.8262.14-1.8640:00
50M. Hogberg(O)963.6670.89-2.1121:56

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).