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Predators at Hurricanes
NHL

Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸3
Carolina Hurricanes
1
FinalTV FDSNSO·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Evangelista's goal at 4:01 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 64% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were NSH 16, CAR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 13 of 16 (.813), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Juuse Saros (34 saves, .971), 2. Luke Evangelista (2 G), 3. Taylor Hall (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    J. Saros34 saves, .971
  2. ★★
    NSH
    L. Evangelista2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    T. Hall1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH171217316
CARCAR01111608135

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    M. Bunting(16)PPG
    K. Bellows (1), B. Skjei (17)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    5:14

2nd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(8)
    F. Forsberg (38), M. Del Gaizo (6)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    4:01
  2. CAR
    T. Hall(16)PPG
    S. Jarvis (27), S. Gostisbehere (33)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    6:02

3rd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(9)
    M. Del Gaizo (7), R. O'Reilly (27)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    3-1
    12:48

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:19CARDmitry Orlov · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

2nd

  • 4:41NSHMichael McCarron · Cross checkingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 6:51NSHSpencer Stastney · Hookingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 18:15NSHCole Smith · High stickingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min

3rd

  • 3:55CARJalen Chatfield · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 19:49CARShayne Gostisbehere · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNSH goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Luke Evangelista, 2nd 4:01 — NSH 64% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.28S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.23J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.21L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.16S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.15E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.13J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.12J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.12J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.12S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.10J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.10L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.09J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.09J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.08T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.07L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.07S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.07T. Hall · Goal · xG 0.06J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.06S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.03M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.03J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.00B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR1 G · 3.2 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCAR
1.83 G
All situations
1 G3.2
0.82 G
Even strength
0 G1.8
0.51 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH18%82%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.31 – 3.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCAR
16
Shots on goal
35
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
10
22
Blocked shots
3
16
Giveaways
22
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD011030.07010—24:52
37N. BlankenburgD000010.02040—22:15
20J. BarronD000+220.21330—21:34
7M. Del GaizoD022+200.00120—21:02
90R. O'ReillyC011+200.000202917:40
58M. BuntingL101010.83000—16:41
47M. McCarronC000000.004225316:32
36C. SmithR000010.01402—15:23
81J. MarchessaultR000010.01000—15:16
77L. EvangelistaR202+230.34000—15:07
91S. StamkosC000000.011203314:53
9F. ForsbergL011+100.03000—14:42
10C. SissonsC000000.001108614:33
40F. SvechkovC000000.00010014:29
24S. StastneyD000000.00012—13:30
82J. OesterleD000000.04120—13:25
68Z. L'HeureuxL000+120.11110—11:43
26K. BellowsL011020.1110010011:02
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)35341.9713.22+2.2260:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).