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Maple Leafs at Rangers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
New York Rangers
3
FinalTV MSG 2, SNO·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Rangers 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Knies's goal at 14:26 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 68% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 28, NYR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.8 goals below expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jake McCabe (3 A), 3. Bobby McMann (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. McCabe3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    B. McMann1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR2142608428
NYRNYR11111019330

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(28)
    J. McCabe (16), W. Nylander (34)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    12:30
  2. NYR
    W. Borgen(5)
    C. Soucy (8), J. Brodzinski (7)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:12
  3. TOR
    B. McMann(19)
    J. McCabe (17), J. Tavares (31)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:50

2nd period

  1. NYR
    A. Panarin(31)
    V. Trocheck (27), A. Fox (45)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:22
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(29)
    B. McMann (12), J. McCabe (18)
    slapxG 0.22win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:16
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(25)
    W. Nylander (35)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    14:26

3rd period

  1. NYR
    C. Kreider(19)
    A. Panarin (44), V. Trocheck (28)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:25

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·NYR 2 PIM

1st

  • 8:50NYRK'Andre Miller · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

3rd

  • 9:18TORMatthew Knies · Slashingdrawn by Zac Jones2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYR goalTOR goalFinal: NYR 0%

Biggest swing: Matthew Knies, 2nd 14:26 — TOR 68% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.23C. Soucy · Missed · xG 0.19A. Panarin · Goal · xG 0.19J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.15A. Fox · On goal · xG 0.15C. Kreider · Goal · xG 0.12J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.11C. Soucy · On goal · xG 0.11W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.09S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.08M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.08M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.06C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.04M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.04J. Brodzinski · On goal · xG 0.04A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.04J. Brodzinski · On goal · xG 0.03M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Jones · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Jones · On goal · xG 0.03W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02B. Othmann · On goal · xG 0.02W. Borgen · Goal · xG 0.02S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.02J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.02J. Brodzinski · On goal · xG 0.02C. Soucy · Missed · xG 0.01K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01W. Borgen · Missed · xG 0.01W. Borgen · Missed · xG 0.01A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.01W. Borgen · On goal · xG 0.01C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.01A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.01A. Fox · On goal · xG 0.01A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.01V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.00K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.00C. Soucy · On goal · xG 0.00V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.00V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.00
NYR3 G · 2.2 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNYR
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.2
2.44 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR55%45%NYR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNYR
28
Shots on goal
30
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
27
Hits
33
20
Blocked shots
10
12
Giveaways
21
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD033+100.00320—22:23
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000010.02240—21:25
8C. TanevD000+210.06140—19:54
91J. TavaresC213+240.391104219:42
44M. RiellyD000-110.01010—19:39
88W. NylanderR022+430.65110—19:28
25B. CarloD000000.00330—19:14
74B. McMannC112+340.42100017:59
16M. MarnerR000-210.06000—17:35
34A. MatthewsC000030.232107417:35
2S. BenoitD000000.00110—15:42
23M. KniesL101-140.29402—15:13
64D. KampfC000000.000105013:28
24S. LaughtonC000020.05200013:24
18S. LorentzC000010.01400012:51
89N. RobertsonL000-110.07100—11:14
29P. HolmbergR000-100.17010—10:43
11M. DomiC000-120.081005010:31
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)30273.9002.22-0.7860:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).