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Avalanche at Senators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Ottawa Senators
1
FinalTV ALT, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Ottawa Senators 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 11:28 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 60% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were COL 33, OTT 16. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 15 of 16 (.938), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 19 of 20 (.950). Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (2 G), 2. Cale Makar (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anton Forsberg (19 saves, .950).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    B. Nelson2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg19 saves, .950

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL41411207533
OTTOTT080414116

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(28)
    J. Drouin (21), C. Makar (55)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:29
  2. COL
    B. Nelson(21)
    S. Malinski (9), M. Necas (51)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    11:28
  3. COL
    C. Makar(26)PPG
    J. Drouin (22), V. Nichushkin (10)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-0
    14:23
  4. COL
    J. Kiviranta(16)
    R. Colton (11), C. Coyle (9)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-0
    17:29

2nd period

  1. COL
    B. Nelson(22)PPG
    A. Lehkonen (15), R. Colton (12)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +2 ptsVideo
    5-0
    1:54

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Cozens(14)PPG
    T. Stützle (49), J. Sanderson (40)
    snapxG 0.12Video
    5-1
    15:59

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 14:13OTTRidly Greig · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 19:54OTTDylan Cozens · Interferencedrawn by Jack Drury2 min

2nd

  • 13:04OTTDavid Perron · Roughingdrawn by Sam Malinski2 min
  • 13:04COLSam Malinski · Roughingdrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 17:35OTTShane Pinto · High stickingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

3rd

  • 1:51OTTDavid Perron · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 8:26COLJack Drury · High stickingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 15:11COLKeaton Middleton · Interferencedrawn by Adam Gaudette2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCOL goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 1st 11:28 — COL 60% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.19D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.15D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.12D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.12D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.11D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.10D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.08T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.05A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.05A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.05D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.04R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.04A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT1 G · 1.8 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsOTT
2.45 G
All situations
1 G1.8
1.83 G
Even strength
0 G1.5
0.62 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL62%38%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 1.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsOTT
33
Shots on goal
16
56%
Faceoffs
44%
2/4
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
17
Hits
35
20
Blocked shots
19
14
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112+140.22030—21:08
7D. ToewsD000+110.00110—19:51
55R. LindgrenD000+200.00130—19:04
70S. MalinskiD011+200.00022—18:15
67K. MiddletonD000010.04112—17:49
6E. JohnsonD000030.06010—17:47
29N. MacKinnonC101+130.210106217:33
88M. NecasC011+130.06000017:23
13V. NichushkinR011+120.23100—17:21
27J. DrouinL022+110.05110—16:37
18J. DruryC000030.160125015:35
25L. O'ConnorR000000.09300—15:21
62A. LehkonenL011+120.22120—14:39
11B. NelsonC202+130.371004614:35
17P. KellyC000030.2633010014:13
10C. CoyleC011+100.061107013:38
20R. ColtonC022+110.04200012:59
94J. KivirantaL101+130.30100—11:33
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)16151.9381.77+0.7759:51

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).