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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV SCRIPPS, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Panthers answered. The Panthers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Niko Mikkola's goal at 13:56 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.4 to 1.6; shots on goal were FLA 25, TOR 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Anthony Stolarz stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sam Bennett (2 G), 2. Max Domi (1 G), 3. Sam Reinhart (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Bennett2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Domi1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1112905325
TORTOR1701018225

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(27)
    W. Nylander (31), S. Benoit (5)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:00
  2. FLA
    S. Bennett(21)PPG
    M. Samoskevich (11), S. Reinhart (37)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:51

2nd period

  1. FLA
    N. Mikkola(5)
    A. Greer (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:56
  2. FLA
    S. Bennett(22)PPG
    S. Reinhart (38), M. Samoskevich (12)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    17:13

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(5)
    C. Jarnkrok (1), O. Ekman-Larsson (22)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:26

Penalties

FLA 11 PIM·TOR 11 PIM

1st

  • 3:54FLANate Schmidt · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min
  • 3:54TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Nate Schmidt5 min
  • 11:54TORDavid Kampf · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Sergei Bobrovsky2 min
  • 17:16TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Mackie Samoskevich2 min

2nd

  • 2:49FLAA.J. Greer · Roughingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 7:57FLASam Bennett · Interferencedrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 15:16TORserved by Bobby McMann · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 2:03FLANate Schmidt · Holdingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Niko Mikkola, 2nd 13:56 — FLA 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.17M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.15M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.13M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.12B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.11M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.06B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.00B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.00S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.00C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
1.63 G
All situations
2 G2.4
1.11 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.52 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA35%65%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.63 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
25
Shots on goal
25
51%
Faceoffs
49%
2/3
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
11
40
Hits
24
12
Blocked shots
14
18
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3S. JonesD000-130.06330—27:57
42G. ForslingD000+100.00110—26:07
13S. ReinhartC022-100.00410021:59
77N. MikkolaD101+130.13110—20:40
16A. BarkovC000-120.243006319:59
9S. BennettC202040.482124519:51
7D. KulikovD000000.03110—19:51
25M. SamoskevichR022040.25200—17:02
15A. LundellC000000.000006415:42
27E. LuostarinenC000010.01500014:49
23C. VerhaegheC000-120.08300014:32
17E. RodriguesC000010.063105714:31
70J. BoqvistC000000.05200014:26
26U. BalinskisD000-110.06200—10:50
88N. SchmidtD000-200.00117—10:23
8N. SturmC000030.094203810:14
10A. GreerL011010.12202—08:43
12J. GadjovichL000000.00100—06:24
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)25232.9202.40+0.4060:00

Season series

FLA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).