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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, MSG-B·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 7:57 of the first period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 66% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.4 to 1.6; shots on goal were BUF 15, CAR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. James Reimer stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 13 of 15 (.867). Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A), 2. Taylor Hall (1 G), 3. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    T. Hall1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Kotkaniemi1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF140516215
CARCAR31711119537

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(11)
    J. Martinook (17)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:09
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(21)
    M. Rantanen (42)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:57
  3. CAR
    M. Rantanen(27)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (25), S. Gostisbehere (25)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +7 ptsVideo
    0-3
    9:41
  4. BUF
    A. Tuch(21)PPG
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:04

2nd period

  1. CAR
    T. Hall(10)
    J. Roslovic (10), J. Kotkaniemi (16)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-4
    15:52

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(17)
    R. McLeod (17), J. Quinn (13)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    1:15
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(23)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.91win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-5
    17:49

Penalties

BUF 9 PIM·CAR 11 PIM

1st

  • 0:04CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Fightingdrawn by Dylan Cozens5 min
  • 0:04BUFDylan Cozens · Fightingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi5 min
  • 3:52BUFRyan McLeod · Trippingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
  • 9:04BUFZach Benson · Trippingdrawn by Jaccob Slavin2 min
  • 17:58CARserved by J. Blake · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 9:37CARTyson Jost · Slashingdrawn by Sam Lafferty2 min
  • 13:00CARDmitry Orlov · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 1st 7:57 — CAR 66% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.91J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.19T. Hall · Goal · xG 0.19S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.19J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.17E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.15S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.10D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.10S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.09A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.09J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.08J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.08J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.07J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.07D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.07J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.06J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.06J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.06J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.05S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.05J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.05J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.05J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.04T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.04J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.04J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.03J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.00J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR5 G · 4.4 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
1.62 G
All situations
4 G4.4
1.21 G
Even strength
3 G3.1
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF20%80%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.60 – 3.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
15
Shots on goal
37
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/3
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
20
Hits
19
18
Blocked shots
8
18
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-110.04140—25:38
4B. ByramD000-300.03120—22:52
25O. PowerD000020.02020—21:33
77J. PeterkaR101-120.29000—21:11
22J. QuinnR011+110.16010—20:17
71R. McLeodC011-100.000025518:39
23M. SamuelssonD000+100.00320—18:21
19P. KrebsC000-220.132106717:47
89A. TuchR101-250.471005017:35
72T. ThompsonC000-210.411003817:29
10H. JokiharjuD000-200.02200—15:21
12J. GreenwayL000-110.01320—14:56
24D. CozensC000000.002056713:54
9Z. BensonL000-100.00002—12:20
8D. GilbertD000-100.03030—12:14
20J.KulichC000-100.002001711:23
29B. MalenstynL000000.0001010009:12
81S. LaffertyC000000.002006007:47
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(L)29272.9312.70+0.7050:57
1U. Luukkonen752.7140.78-1.2207:57

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).