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Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV Victory+, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the San Jose Sharks 8-3. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Stars led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Marchment's goal at 13:24 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 46% to 61%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were DAL 34, SJS 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Vitek Vanecek stopped 26 of 34 (.765), 4.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (2 G, 1 A), 2. Thomas Harley (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jamie Benn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Duchene2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Harley1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Benn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL31626312834
SJSSJS25010112327

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:25
  2. SJS
    backhandxG 0.32win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    2:46
  3. DAL
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:02
  4. DAL
    wristxG 0.32win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    10:08
  5. DAL
    slapxG 0.25win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:24

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene(22)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-2
    7:30
  2. DAL
    J. Benn (22), E. Dadonov (16)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    5-2
    15:42

3rd period

  1. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-2
    11:20
  2. DAL
    E. Lindell (15), R. Hintz (14)
    wristxG 0.02Video
    7-2
    12:33
  3. SJS
    7-3
    13:00
  4. DAL
    wristxG 0.16Video
    8-3
    13:37

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·SJS 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:06SJSTimothy Liljegren · Interferencedrawn by Mavrik Bourque2 min
  • 7:16DALLian Bichsel · Hookingdrawn by Macklin Celebrini2 min

2nd

  • 6:58SJSWill Smith · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 9:41DALLian Bichsel · Trippingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalDAL goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Mason Marchment, 1st 13:24 — DAL 46% → 61%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Duehr · Goal · xG 0.38F. Zetterlund · Goal · xG 0.32W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.13W. Eklund · Goal · xG 0.12C. Graf · Missed · xG 0.11W. Eklund · On goal · xG 0.11M. Celebrini · Missed · xG 0.11F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.10W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09C. Grundstrom · Missed · xG 0.09C. Graf · On goal · xG 0.08L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.07W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.07A. Poturalski · On goal · xG 0.07C. Grundstrom · On goal · xG 0.07M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.07F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.06B. Goodrow · Missed · xG 0.06C. Grundstrom · On goal · xG 0.06M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.05M. Celebrini · Missed · xG 0.05A. Poturalski · On goal · xG 0.04J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.04F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.04W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.04M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.04J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.03T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.03L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.02C. Graf · Missed · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.02L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mukhamadullin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.01W. Eklund · On goal · xG 0.01W. Eklund · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS3 G · 2.8 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsSJS
3.18 G
All situations
3 G2.8
2.77 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL56%44%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.06 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsSJS
34
Shots on goal
27
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
10
Hits
27
19
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
20
2
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD112+110.02020—23:24
23E. LindellD011+110.03040—22:27
6L. BichselD022+450.07214—19:27
44C. CeciD000+110.04110—19:08
95M. DucheneC213020.230005317:09
3M. DumbaD011+210.08120—16:46
53W. JohnstonC112+130.400006016:22
21J. RobertsonL101+230.45100—16:21
2B. SmithD000-130.06100—16:15
27M. MarchmentL101+120.34100—16:12
22M. BourqueC101+110.110005716:09
64M. GranlundC022+110.02010014:58
24R. HintzC011+220.340102514:28
63E. DadonovL011+220.20010—14:28
10O. BäckC011000.1504010014:08
14J. BennL112+130.260104013:44
15C. BlackwellC011+110.010005012:34
11L. StankovenC000020.273105012:00
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1C. DeSmith(W)27243.8892.79-0.2160:00

Season series

DAL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).