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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV NHLN, FDSNSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 13:45 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 73% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were TBL 30, TOR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.4 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Matthew Knies (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Knies2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL06112212330
TORTOR1112829528

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(19)
    M. Knies (13), O. Ekman-Larsson (16)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:06

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(28)
    M. Rielly (17), S. Lorentz (6)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:45
  2. TBL
    N. Paul(12)
    D. Raddysh (17), B. Point (23)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:07
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(17)
    M. Marner (51), A. Matthews (18)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:37

3rd period

  1. TBL
    D. Raddysh(3)
    V. Hedman (30), N. Kucherov (48)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:07
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(18)PPG
    M. Marner (52), B. McMann (8)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +10 ptsVideo
    2-4
    10:09
  3. TBL
    N. Paul(13)PPG
    B. Hagel (30), V. Hedman (31)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-4
    12:05
  4. TOR
    M. Marner(15)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.49win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:55

Penalties

TBL 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

3rd

  • 1:15TORPontus Holmberg · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 9:21TBLEmil Lilleberg · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 11:02TORDavid Kampf · Trippingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, 2nd 13:45 — TOR 73% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.65M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.49M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.35M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.21A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.16B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.12C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.11F. Minten · On goal · xG 0.09P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.09D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.09M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.07P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.06C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.02M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.00B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00C. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.00B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
2.63 G
All situations
4 G3.7
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
1.01 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL50%50%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
30
Shots on goal
28
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
12
10
Blocked shots
11
13
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86N. KucherovR011-350.33000—25:06
71A. CirelliC000-220.160205423:47
43D. RaddyshD112020.14100—23:21
77V. HedmanD022+260.30000—23:04
38B. HagelL011-310.29000—22:57
27R. McDonaghD000-210.07030—20:43
59J. GuentzelC000010.121103320:26
21B. PointC011010.080103819:53
20N. PaulL202+150.621004418:24
65M. CrozierD000-100.01010—18:11
78E. LillebergD000-100.02202—15:29
48N. PerbixD000-110.01010—14:07
41M. ChaffeeR000000.25500—12:57
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.14210010:23
14C. GeekieC000-100.003005608:56
11L. GlendeningC000010.013005608:21
23M. EyssimontC000020.07100007:57
13C. AtkinsonR000000.00000—06:59
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(L)27234.8522.56-1.4458:11

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).