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Penguins at Sabres
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV SN-PIT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Sabres scored first; the Penguins answered. The Penguins led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Beauvillier's goal at 2:08 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were PIT 19, BUF 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 86% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 40 of 42 (.952), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 2.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Nedeljkovic (40 saves, .952), 2. Cody Glass (1 G, 1 A), 3. Zach Benson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    A. Nedeljkovic40 saves, .952
  2. ★★
    PIT
    C. Glass1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Benson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT0631023519
BUFBUF110013119242

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    O. Power(6)PPG
    Z. Benson (8), B. Byram (18)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    15:16

2nd period

  1. PIT
    R. Rakell(23)PPG
    B. Rust (18), M. Grzelcyk (22)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:41
  2. PIT
    A. Beauvillier(10)
    C. Glass (9)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    2:08
  3. PIT
    C. Glass(2)PPG
    P. Tomasino (5), A. Nedeljkovic (1)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:43

3rd period

  1. PIT
    B. Rust(18)PPG
    M. Grzelcyk (23), M. Bunting (13)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-1
    1:09
  2. BUF
    Z. Benson(8)
    T. Thompson (17), A. Tuch (19)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-2
    14:46
  3. PIT
    A. Nedeljkovic(1)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.38win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-2
    17:18

Penalties

PIT 22 PIM·BUF 20 PIM

1st

  • 10:57BUFJack Quinn · Slashingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min
  • 12:24PITEvgeni Malkin · High sticking double minordrawn by Beck Malenstyn4 min

2nd

  • 0:31BUFRasmus Dahlin · High stickingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min
  • 9:50BUFHenri Jokiharju · Trippingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min
  • 12:07PITPierre-Olivier Joseph · Slashingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
  • 18:35PITEvgeni Malkin · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen2 min
  • 19:26BUFTage Thompson · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Graves2 min

3rd

  • 4:42PITOwen Pickering · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 9:11PITMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 9:11BUFPeyton Krebs · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 12:03BUFJason Zucker · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:03PITRyan Graves · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPIT goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier, 2nd 2:08 — PIT 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.47Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.18D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.18J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.16D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.16D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.15R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.15O. Power · On goal · xG 0.15B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.12P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.11Z. Benson · Goal · xG 0.11A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.11R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.10D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.08P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.08B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Kozak · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05O. Power · Goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.04J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.01J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.00H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 4.1 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsBUF
2.44 G
All situations
2 G4.1
1.01 G
Even strength
1 G3.1
0.63 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT14%86%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.64 – 4.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsBUF
19
Shots on goal
42
55%
Faceoffs
45%
3/4
Power play
1/5
22
Penalty minutes
20
21
Hits
19
17
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24M. GrzelcykD022000.00130—24:07
65E. KarlssonD000+210.01110—22:55
28M. PetterssonD000-100.00110—21:52
17B. RustR112020.2001010018:39
73P. JosephD000000.00022—18:38
87S. CrosbyC000020.080006418:13
8M. BuntingL011000.07202—17:17
67R. RakellR101020.2111010015:46
71E. MalkinC000+110.210265015:45
38O. PickeringD000+100.00212—14:28
72A. BeauvillierR101+120.26300—13:37
10D. O'ConnorL000010.42120—13:33
27R. GravesD000000.003110—13:13
19C. GlassC112+130.220005012:58
46B. LizotteC000010.10010012:49
55N. AcciariC000020.064107512:16
13K. HayesR000010.141005712:01
53P. TomasinoR011000.06100—11:01
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(W)42402.9524.15+2.1560:00

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).