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Sabres at Avalanche
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
5
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Final/OTTV ALT, MSG-B·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-5 in overtime, Devon Toews scoring at 0:48. The Avalanche came back from three goals down. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Drouin's goal at 19:52 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 3% to 51%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.0 to 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 21, COL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 3.0 goals below expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Devon Toews (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jason Zucker (3 G, 1 A), 3. Cale Makar (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker3 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF210172400521
COLCOL091941011629

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(12)PPG
    J. Quinn (9), T. Thompson (13)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    13:17
  2. BUF
    B. Byram(5)
    J. Zucker (16), D. Cozens (12)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    17:10

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(13)PPG
    T. Thompson (14), R. Dahlin (21)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-0
    11:08
  2. COL
    C. Makar(12)
    J. Drouin (5), D. Toews (13)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-1
    14:58

3rd period

  1. COL
    R. Colton(12)
    S. Girard (16)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:05
  2. BUF
    Z. Benson(7)
    P. Krebs (8), J. Peterka (17)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.02win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    1:27
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(22)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (48), C. Mittelstadt (17)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    4:17
  4. BUF
    J. Zucker(14)
    T. Thompson (15)
    snapxG 0.32win prob +9 ptsVideo
    5-3
    16:09
  5. COL
    C. Makar(13)
    N. MacKinnon (49), D. Toews (14)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +6 ptsVideo
    5-4
    17:34
  6. COL
    J. Drouin(3)
    N. MacKinnon (50), M. Rantanen (34)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +49 ptsVideo
    5-5
    19:52

Overtime

  1. COL
    D. Toews(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +49 ptsVideo
    5-6
    0:48

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:18COLJosh Manson · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

2nd

  • 10:12COLRoss Colton · Cross checkingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 17:03BUFZach Benson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 1:27COLserved by Jere Innala · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 3:04BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 3:19BUFDylan Cozens · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 3:45BUFConnor Clifton · Cross checkingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 3:45COLArtturi Lehkonen · Roughingdrawn by Connor Clifton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalBUF goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Drouin, 3rd 19:52 — COL 3% → 51%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.25N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.20D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.19L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.18M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.13D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.13J. Drouin · Goal · xG 0.12D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.12C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08J. Innala · Missed · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07O. Olausson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.06R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.06R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.03J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.02J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Innala · Missed · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01O. Olausson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01K. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.00C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 3.0 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCOL
2.15 G
All situations
6 G3.0
1.33 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
0.92 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF35%65%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.10 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCOL
21
Shots on goal
29
55%
Faceoffs
45%
2/3
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
27
Hits
31
9
Blocked shots
9
7
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000-200.00300—24:27
26R. DahlinD011-210.06100—23:17
25O. PowerD000-120.02100—22:06
4B. ByramD101010.12100—21:15
72T. ThompsonC033-140.51010019:43
89A. TuchR000-200.03142—19:24
24D. CozensC011-210.013026818:52
17J. ZuckerL314+140.742205018:14
20J.KulichC000-110.010004616:36
29B. MalenstynL000-100.1232010015:59
22J. QuinnR011-100.00100—15:22
71R. McLeodC000030.350003815:17
78J. BrysonD000+110.00000—13:20
75C. CliftonD000+100.00402—12:59
77J. PeterkaR011+120.1220010011:53
81S. LaffertyC000000.00200010:11
9Z. BensonL101+110.05102—09:34
19P. KrebsC011000.002006008:42
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(O)29236.7932.97-3.0360:48

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).